Bitcoin breaks through 120k to record highs as crypto week begins – What now?

Bitcoin has surged almost 20% from its June 23^rd low, finally breaking above 110k resistance to hit a record high of 123k. Gains are not limited to Bitcoin, with ETH +2.5% above $3,000 and XRP +5% at almost $ 300. The crypto market capitalisation has reached $ 3.81 trillion, a 3.8% increase over the past 24 hours. The Fear and Greed Index has risen to 70, Greed. 

The stars have aligned for the largest cryptocurrency, as BTC shrugs off the risk-off mood across the broader financial markets after Trump’s latest trade tariff threats. Instead, a combination of record institutional demand, rising corporate interest, improving regulatory clarity, and concerns over a fiscal crisis in the US has sent Bitcoin soaring and could continue to support the price higher this quarter. Q3 post halving has historically seen strong gains. 

BTC institutional demand reaches record levels 

Bitcoin ETFs posted a sixth straight day of net inflows on Friday of $1.03 billion, which came following $1.18 billion on July 10^th, marking the strongest two-day period of inflows yet. This has taken net assets across all Bitcoin ETFs to $158 billion, with the segment now representing 6.43% of Bitcoin's total market cap. The impressive growth highlights institutional demand as a clear marker of conviction. Strong and persistent BTC demand could keep the BTC price scaling higher across the quarter. 

With retail nowhere to be seen, this latest rally isn’t being driven by hype or retail euphoria. Google Trends, which can be used to assess retail involvement, shows that the Bitcoin topic is still significantly below the peaks of 2020 or even November 2024.  

Meanwhile, corporations have been keen to get in on the act. Quarterly inflows into Bitcoin treasury companies reached $15 billion in Q2, with 145 firms now pursuing the Bitcoin treasury strategy. 

Crypto week 

Part of the allure of Bitcoin in 2025 has been the improving regulatory backdrop. This week, US Congress readies for “Crypto Week,” where US lawmakers prepare to vote on legislation aimed at making America the world's crypto capital. Over the coming week, lawmakers in the republican Republican-controlled House will debate the Genesis Act, the Digital Assets Market Clarity Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. The passage of these bills will help push cryptocurrencies further into mainstream finance, adding to BTC’s legitimacy and boosting the demand outlook. 

BTC rises as US fiscal and USD debasement worries grow 

President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act was passed at the start of July, which raised the US debt ceiling by $5 trillion and is expected to add a further $3 trillion to the national debt pile over the coming decade. With deficit spending rising and monetary policy turning more accommodative amid expectations of two rate cuts this year from the Fed, Bitcoin is also positioned to benefit from the macro environment and USD debasement. 

Bitcoin technical analysis 

Bitcoin finally pushed above the 110k resistance, extending gains to a peak of 123k before easing back slightly. The price is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 121k, from the April 7 low to the May 22 high. 

With uncharted waters above, a close above 121k could see the price rally towards the 78.6% Fib level at 128k and on to 135k. Beyond here, attention will be firmly on the 150k psychological level. 

It’s worth noting that the RSI is well into overbought territory, so buyers should be cautious. 

Support can be seen at 117k, the 50% Fib level, and below here, 110k comes into play again. It would take a break below 105k to create a lower low and change the structure of the chart. 

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