Cointelegraph Team
Cointelegraph
Bitcoin (BTC) may score a new all-time high in 2021, but the odds are that it won’t happen next month.
Historical price data confirms that September tends to see BTC price losses — and its best-ever returns are still single figures.
September 2021 looks like a classic for BTC
As Bitcoin matures, it becomes more noticeable that BTC/USD behaves in similar ways during the same month each year.
Q4 is the clear standout for top performance, especially in the year following a block subsidy halving. By contrast, January tends to be bearish — although this year was a conspicuous exception to the rule.
Turning to September, however, and the picture is uninspiring for investors. Summer may be over, but historically, next month has never seen Bitcoin increase by more than 6%.
“Bitcoin doesn’t like September at all,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe commented this week.
“Are we going to repeat and have a corrective month across markets, before the continuation of bull cycle?”
BTC/USD historical returns chart. Source: Bybt
Better luck in Q4?
September is already tipped to deliver a slightly lower price zone than August, something that PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow Bitcoin price models, said is merely a data technicality.
Bitcoiners may not need to grin and bear it for long, however, as October tends to deliver much more convincing momentum.
Yet for the meantime, it seems that a retest of all-time highs will need to wait. At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded at $47,600, having lost around 1.6% in the past 24 hours.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
SEC doubles down on TRON's Justin Sun lawsuit dismissing claims over jurisdiction
The SEC says it has jurisdiction to bring Justin Sun to court as he traveled extensively to the US. Sun asked to dismiss the suit, arguing that the SEC was targeting actions taken outside the US.
XRP fails to break past $0.50, posting 20% weekly losses
XRP trades range-bound below $0.50 for a sixth consecutive day, accumulating 20% losses in the last seven days. Ripple is expected to file its response to the SEC’s remedies-related opening brief by April 22.
ImmutableX extends recovery despite $69 million IMX token unlock
ImmutableX unlocked 34.19 million IMX tokens worth over $69 million early on Friday. IMX circulating supply increased over 2% following the unlock. The Layer 2 blockchain token’s price added nearly 3% to its value on April 19.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price briefly slipped below the $60,000 level for the last three days, attracting buyers in this area as the fourth BTC halving is due in a few hours. Is the halving priced in for Bitcoin? Or will the pioneer crypto note more gains in the coming days?
Bitcoin: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly slipped below the $60,000 level for the last three days, attracting buyers in this area as the fourth BTC halving is due in a few hours. Is the halving priced in for Bitcoin? Or will the pioneer crypto note more gains in the coming days?