Yesterday we witnessed a news tsunami where we had at least a dozen economic news reports

USD: Sept '25 is Up at 96.860.  

Energies: Aug '25 Crude is Up at 65.39.

Financials: The Sep '25 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 1 tick and trading at 114.29.

Indices: The Jun '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 66 ticks Lower and trading at 6211.75.

Gold: The Aug'25 Gold contract is trading Down at 3299.10.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, but the 30 Year T-Bond is trading fractionally Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Mixed.  All of Europe is trading Higher as well.

Possible challenges to traders

• Core PCE Price Index m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.
• Personal Income m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.
• Personal Spending m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.
• FOMC Member Cook Speaks at 9:15 AM EST.  This is Major.
• FOMC Member Hammack Speaks at 9:15 AM EST.  This is Major.
• Revised UOM Consumer Sentiment is out at 10 AM EST.  This is not Major.
• Revised UOM Inflation Expectations is out at 10 AM EST.  This is not Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST with multiple news reports pending.  The Dow dived Lower at the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow dived Lower at 8:30 AM EST and the ZT climbed Higher at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade.   Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for ZT is now Sep '25 and the Dow is now Sep '25.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

ZT -Sep 25 - 6/26/25

Dow - Sep 2025- 6/26/25

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Mixed bias and the indices veered to the Upside.  The Dow gained 404 points, and the other indices closed Higher.  We should not that whenever we give a Neutral bias it means that the markets could go in any direction and often does.  Today our bias is Neutral.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday we witnessed a news tsunami where we had at least a dozen economic news reports, all of which were major. The markets stood its ground and closed Higher.