This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, but the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Mixed. All of Europe is trading Lower.

Possible challenges to Traders

Unemployment Claims is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Building Permits is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Housing Starts is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. This is Major.
FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 11:45 AM EST. This is Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT). They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract. The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST while awaiting retail sales numbers. The Dow climbed Higher at the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow moved Higher at 8:30 AM EST and the ZT moved Lower at around the same time. These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $6.25. Please note: the front month for ZT is now Jun '25 and the Dow is Jun '25 as well. I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

ZT -Jun 2025 - 4/16/25

Dow - Mar 2025- 4/16/25

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Downside bias as both the USD and Bonds were trading Lower. The Dow dropped nearly 700 points, and the other indices traded Lower as well. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market, and our bias is to the Upside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

So yesterday we heard from Fed Chair Powell on the ramifications of the Trump tariffs, and it didn't make the markets feel very comfortable as all the indices traded Lower. However, we suggested a Down day for the markets hours before Powell spoke.

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

Market Tea Leaves

EUR/USD holds firm above 1.1900 as US NFP looms

EUR/USD holds its upbeat momentum above 1.1900 in the European trading hours on Wednesday, helped by a broadly weaker US Dollar. Markets could turn cautious later in the day as the delayed US employment report for January will takes center stage.

GBP/USD recovers losses despite rising UK political risks, BoE rate cut bets

Pound Sterling advances against the US Dollar after registering modest losses in the previous session, trading around 1.3650 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair could extend losses as the Pound Sterling faces pressure from rising political risks in the UK and growing expectations of near-term Bank of England rate cuts.

Gold sticks to gains near $5,050 as focus shifts to US NFP

Gold holds moderate gains near the $5,050 level in the European session on Wednesday, reversing a part of the previous day's modest losses amid dovish US Federal Reserve-inspired US Dollar weakness. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal ahead of the critical US NFP release.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple show no sign of recovery

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple show signs of cautious stabilization on Wednesday after failing to close above their key resistance levels earlier this week. BTC trades below $69,000, while ETH and XRP also encountered rejection near major resistance levels. With no immediate bullish catalyst, the top three cryptocurrencies continue to show no clear signs of a sustained recovery.

Dollar drops and stocks rally: The week of reckoning for US economic data

Following a sizeable move lower in US technology Stocks last week, we have witnessed a meaningful recovery unfold. The USD Index is in a concerning position; the monthly price continues to hold the south channel support.

BNB prolonged correction signals deeper bearish momentum

BNB (BNB), formerly known as Binance Coin, is trading below $618 on Wednesday, marking the sixth consecutive day of correction since the weekend. The bearish price action is further supported by rising short bets alongside negative funding rates in the derivatives market.