XAU/USD Price forecast: Gold remains depressed above $4,000

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $ 4,035

Easing Middle East tensions cause Oil prices to edge sharply lower.
United States employment data taking center stage this week.
XAU/USD holds above $4,000, but sellers hold the grip.

Spot Gold trades in the $4,030 price zone, little changed from Friday’s close, yet down on Monday after starting the week with a bullish gap. The US Dollar (USD) eased throughout the first half of the day, as easing Middle East tensions caused Oil prices to fall. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovers around $78, down from last week’s close at roughly $85.

United States (US) President Donald Trump boosted the mood after announcing he halted a massive planned attack on Iran as negotiations would restart on Monday afternoon. Later in the day, however, US officials told CBS that there are no new negotiations planned, just the ongoing talks between American and Iranian negotiating teams through mediators.

The USD changed course after its initial slide and turned ´positive across the FX board, getting an extra push during American trading hours from the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The index rose to 55.6 in July from 53.3 in June, also beating the expected 54.

War developments and US employment data will set the market’s tone this week. The US will publish several labor-related figures, including JOLTS Job Openings and the ADP Employment Change survey ahead of the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD offers a neutral-to-bearish stance, as the pair sits below all its moving averages. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) stands at $4,065.14, the 100-period SMA at $4,053.24, and the 200-period SMA at $4,075.53, providing a strong layer of resistance while lacking directional strength. At the same time, the Momentum indicator heads south below its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers around 43, hinting that bears retain the initiative despite the absence of extreme conditions.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD the technical picture is similar. The metal remains below its moving averages, with the 20-day SMA at $4,060.40, and is gaining downward traction. The 14-day RSI indicator at 44.86 stays below the midline, while the 14-day Momentum indicator heads nowhere within neutral levels, which together hint that any recovery attempts could struggle while price remains beneath these key averages.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-period SMA near $4,053.24, where any intraday rebound would first be tested. Above that, the 20-period SMA at $4,065.14 forms a secondary barrier, ahead of a more robust resistance zone at the 200-period SMA around $4,075.53, which would need to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish bias. The $4,000 mark provides immediate support ahead of the June low at $3,941.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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