Gold price today: Two analysts see more downside near $3,900, but one warns an overbought US Dollar could spark a rebound

Gold (XAU/USD) begins November near $3,900 after its ugliest single-day loss since late September — down $146 on Friday — and the two most recent FXStreet analyses agree the metal is vulnerable but diverge on how deep the damage goes and what could rescue it. One maps the next structural support zone at $3,600–$3,400, while the other flags a deeply overbought US Dollar (USD) that could be the catalyst for a rebound.

Independent Analyst Nadim Zidan: The next structural zone sits between $3,600–$3,400

Zidan frames November as a recalibration rather than a reset, with Gold still under pressure. "Gold is trading just above $3,900," he wrote, attributing last week's drop to "elevated yields, stronger USD, tightening liquidity, and broad metals weakness." His downside is explicit and well below current price: "Gold remains vulnerable, and the next structural zone sits between 3,600–3,400." Zidan lays out two November routes — a "controlled grind lower" where "gold drifts toward $3,820," versus a "stabilization and slow recovery" where "gold reclaims $4,000" — but concludes that "the first is already unfolding" and "downside risks dominate." — Read the full report

The Aden Forecast’s Chuck Butler: A very ugly day for the metals

Butler documents the same carnage but is more cautious about chasing it lower. "Gold lost $146 on the day, to close the week at $3,876," he wrote, adding that "these are levels that were last seen on the way up... for Gold it was 2025." His key contrarian signal is the US Dollar: the BBDXY "ended the week at 1,223... Still way overbought in my humble opinion," and overnight it "lost 2 index points to 1,221... looking like it might be ready for a leap from the cliff." Butler notes Gold "is not being sold so far this morning, and is up $25 to start the day/week," but withholds the all-clear: "I don't see Glinda the good witch telling us that it's all safe to come out again yet." On the driver, he flags falling US Treasury yields — "the buying of the 10-year Treasury continues with the yield falling to 4.91%" — and oil sliding $5, both of which ease the pressure that crushed gold. — Read the full report

The takeaway

Both analysts are cautious on Gold near $3,900, but they split on how far the decline runs. Zidan maps a structural support zone down at $3,600–$3,400 and warns downside risks dominate; Butler documents the same one-day $146 plunge but flags an overbought US Dollar "ready for a leap from the cliff" and falling 10-year yields — the two levers that, if they turn, would reverse Gold's slide. Watch the US Dollar and the 10-year: a US Dollar breakdown or a further yield decline toward 4.90% favors a rebound toward $4,000, while a renewed dollar bid keeps Zidan's $3,820–$3,600 path open.

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)