XAU/USD Price forecast: Gold keeps the range despite fresh optimism

XAU/USD Current price: $ 4,087

• Hopes for a Strait of Hormuz reopening put pressure on the US Dollar.
• The United States macroeconomic calendar gyrates around employment figures this week.
• XAU/USD is mildly bullish in the near term, still needs to reconquer $4,100.

The US Dollar (USD) is under mild selling pressure on Tuesday, pressured by headlines indicating that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as Wednesday.

Tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have fluctuated heavily in recent weeks, with two weeks of continued crossfire in the Middle East abruptly pausing late in July. In the last few days, mediation has continued with little progress, yet Tuesday brought some relief as representatives from both sides hinted at reopening the critical sea passage in the next couple of days.

On the one hand, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday in an interview with CNBC. On the other hand, Al Arabiya reported that the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may be “within hours or tomorrow,” according to a high-level source.

The news fueled risk appetite, pushing stock markets firmly up and putting modest pressure on the Greenback. Such pressure was, however, barely enough to lift precious metals within range. XAU/USD surged towards the $4,090 price zone, still confined within July’s tight range.

Other than that, the US reported that the number of job openings stood at 7.359 million in June, easing from the7.537 million openings reported in May, according to the JOLTS Job Openings report. The news adds modest pressure on the Greenback, yet market participants await more US employment-related figures: On Wednesday, the country will publish the July ADP Employment Change, ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday.

Employment figures, while relevant in terms of future Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decisions, may not have a relevant impact on the USD as long as data shows the labor market remains stable. Policymakers are clearly more worried about inflation.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart indicates XAU/USD is bullish in the near term. Spot holds above the clustered simple moving averages, with the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,067.46, the 100-period SMA at $4,052.89, and the 200-period SMA at $4,072.15 all acting as underlying support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims north at 57, while the Momentum indicator turns higher above its midline, which together hint at sustained upward pressure as long as price holds above these moving-average floors.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD remains neutral. The metal holds just above the 20-day SMA at $4,060.47, but remains well below the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $4,407.09 and $4,490.17, respectively, which keeps the broader backdrop bearish despite a modest near-term bounce. The RSI indicator hovers around a neutral 49, while the 14-day Momentum indicator is also flat around its midline, reflecting the lack of directional strength.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 200-period SMA around $4,072.15, followed by the short-term 20-period SMA at $4,067.46 and then the 100-period SMA at $4,052.89, where a deeper pullback would likely meet buyers. Immediate technical resistance comes in the $4,120 region, where Gold has met sellers over the last few days. Gains beyond the area expose the $4,150 price zone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)