Breakouts, gaps & battle lines - Here’s what matters now

The market is getting more selective.

Some of the setups we’ve been tracking are finally delivering - Copper confirmed its breakout, Cocoa pushed through our downside target, and Cotton extended its bearish move - while several metals are still fighting around key technical barriers. The Dollar remains constructive after confirming its earlier breakout, but not every chart deserves action today. The game is simple: follow confirmed moves, respect invalidation levels, and stay patient where price is still stuck in a range.

Cocoa - ICE (CC.F)

Let’s go back to our September 4 roadmap:

“(...) A daily close below the lower boundary of the green wedge - currently around 6055 - would increase the probability of a deeper decline toward 5625-5660. That area combines another important support zone with the 61.8% Fibo, the green support line, and the lows from the first half of August. (...)”

From today’s point of view, we see sellers not only reached our downside target, but pushed straight through it (congratulations to everyone who followed the move and locked in another win along the way).

So, what now?

The first thing that jumps off the chart is today’s fresh bearish gap at 5663.50-5772. That gap has pushed price below the lower boundary of the orange consolidation and triggered another bearish setup.

That gives us two downside targets:

•             target #1: 5344.75-5383.50 - an important support area where two Fibonacci retracements come together.

•             target #2: 5253.95 - the measured-move target based on the size of the broken consolidation.

What invalidates the bearish scenario? A daily close above 5772.

Cocoa Takeaway

Bearish target 5625-5660 achieved and broken.
Watch the new bearish gap at 5663.50-5772.
As long as price stays below 5772 → downside targets remain 5344.75-5383.50, then 5253.95.
Daily close above 5772 → bearish scenario invalidated.

Coffee - ICE (KC.F)

Coffee opened higher today, creating a bullish gap at 276.50-279.45.

But buyers still have a problem.

Yesterday’s bearish gap, combined with the nearby 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, continues to block the road north, which means our bearish scenario from the beginning of the month - and yesterday’s update - remain valid:

“(...) Yesterday’s sharp decline created a new bearish gap at 280-281.55, which means one thing: as long as that gap remains open, the bearish scenario (...) stays in play.

(...) as long as the earlier breakdowns remain valid, bears continue to hold the technical advantage and another downswing may be just around the corner.

Their first target sits at 281.40. If sellers manage to break below it, the road toward 263.73 could open. (...)”

Coffee Takeaway

Watch 280-281.55.
As long as the bearish gap remains open → sellers keep the technical advantage.
Bearish roadmap remains active, with 263.73 as the next larger downside target.
Close the gap → bearish pressure starts to weaken.

Wheat (ZW.F)

After several days of hesitation just above our downside target around 720 (based on the bearish scenario from September 3) bulls still haven’t managed to build a meaningful counterattack or recover the previously lost levels.

And today they have another problem.

The Asian session opened with a fresh bearish gap at 724.75-727.

As long as that gap remains open, our September 11 roadmap stays valid:

“(...) What happens next?

With the sell signals still active and today’s session potentially forming a bearish engulfing pattern, another leg lower may be just around the corner.

Where could bears strike next?

In our view, their next target should be the 700-706 support zone. The battle around that area will likely decide what comes next -> a bullish counterattack or another extension of the decline toward the lower boundary of the green rising channel. (...)”

Wheat Takeaway

Watch the bearish gap at 724.75-727.
As long as it remains open → bearish scenario stays alive.
Next downside target → 700-706.
That support zone should decide whether bulls finally counterattack, or the decline extends toward the lower boundary of the green rising channel.

ATL cheat sheet - September 18

Cocoa (CC.F): 5625-5660 achieved and broken. Stay below 5772 → 5344.75-5383.50, then 5253.95. Daily close above 5772 → bearish scenario invalidated.

Coffee (KC.F): Watch 280-281.55 bearish gap. Gap remains open → bearish scenario stays alive, with 263.73 as the next larger downside target. Gap close → bearish pressure weakens.

Wheat (ZW.F): Watch 724.75-727 bearish gap. Gap stays open → 700-706 remains the downside target. Reaction there should determine the next larger move.

Have a healthy & wonderful weekend!