XAU/USD outlook: Gold probes again through key $4000 support

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

XAU/USD

Gold trades below $4000 level on Friday following Thursday’s break and daily close below this level (the first close well below the mark since 6 November 2025), after the price moved around 4K for almost one month, but all attacks failed to register a clear break lower.

Fresh violation of very significant 4K support may signal an end of extended directionless phase and continuation of larger downtrend from new record high, if break is sustained.

The metal came under fresh pressure as the latest escalation in the Middle East fuels inflationary risk (also partially offsets optimism from better-than-expected US June inflation numbers) that underpins the US dollar.

Loss of $4K support zone (including recent spike low at $3942) would expose immediate support at $3886 (28 Oct 2025), followed by $3666 (weekly Ichimoku cloud base) and $3606 (50% retracement of $1613/$5598 uptrend).

Gold is on track for the second consecutive weekly loss, with bearish daily studies contributing to negative scenario.

Conversely, failure to hold gains below $4000 would weaken developing bearish signal and keep the price in prolonged directionless mode, but biased lower as long as recent range top ($4203) stays intact.

Res: 4067; 4134; 4162; 4203.
Sup: 3970; 3942; 3886; 3717.

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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