XAU/USD outlook: Gold price bounces on positive news but key barrier still holds; US labor data in focus

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

Gold price jumped on Wednesday (up 2.2% until early US session) following another failure at strong $4000 support (metal failed to register clear break below this level in six consecutive attempts.

Weaker than expected US private sector employment data for June and comments from Fed Chair Warsh that inflation risks have eased, lifted metal’s price.

Fresh strength cracked $4100 zone, ceiling of near-term congestion (reinforced by falling 10DMA), with sustained break here needed to generate initial positive signal and start reviving bulls for potential stronger recovery.

Supportive fundamentals (markets await Thursday’s release of June NFP report) still conflict with predominantly bearish structure on daily chart (14-d momentum remains in negative territory / MAs in bearish configuration, with the latest formation of 55/200DMA bear-cross) that continues to provide headwinds to recovery attempts.

Another failure to clear $4100 zone pivots would keep the price within the range, though bullishly aligned while holding in the upper part of the range, as studies on hourly and 4h charts have improved).

All eyes are on June labor data, with disappointing NFP to further weigh on recovery, while better than expected numbers would add to developing positive signals for stronger bounce.

Res: 4115; 4184; 4200; 4268

Sup: 4023; 4000; 3960; 3942

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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