XAG/USD Price analysis: Silver recovers its spark, next hurdle at $80

Silver edged higher on Wednesday, as optimism put a halt to US Dollar (USD) demand. Market players welcomed headlines indicating that the United States (US) and Iran were closing in on a deal to end the Middle East conflict. According to Axios, the deal would involve both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment and the US agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds.

The US expects Iran to respond within the next 48 hours, while a Pakistani source added they are “very close” to finalizing the deal. US President Donald Trump added that if Iran does not agree with US points, “the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.”

Other than that, the US released the ADP Employment Change report, which showed that the private sector added 109K new jobs in April, much better than the previous 61K and the 99K expected.

XAG/USD short-term technical outlook

XAG/USD posted a two-week high of $77.82, holding nearby in the American afternoon. The bright metal pressures the upper end of its recent range, and would need to clear resistance at around $80 to confirm another leg north. In the daily chart, XAG/USD holds a mildly constructive tone, trading just above a flat 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $76.08 and well above the 200-day SMA at $63.45, suggesting underlying trend support despite being capped beneath the 100-day SMA at $80.23. Furthermore, the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the latest daily slump stands at $78.96, reinforcing the resistance area around $80. A daily close above this cluster would open the way toward the 61.8% retracement at $83.20 and then the higher Fibonacci levels at $89.24 and $96.92.

At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned north, but stands around 52, while the Momentum indicator remains around its midline, barely ticking north, reflecting the current advance rather than suggesting growing buying interest. Should Silver retreat below the 20-day SMA, the bullish case could weaken, with the next support at $74.73, the 38.2% retracement of the slump mentioned. A deeper slide would expose the 23.6% level at $69.48, while the 200-day SMA at $63.45 and the structural floor near $61.01 remain distant but important medium-term supports.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)