Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
US CRUDE OIL
Near-term outlook remains negative and sees risk of retesting low at $58.06 (09 Feb) after recovery attempts showed strong rejection at $60.81 on Monday (capped by 55SMA) and Tuesday’s action closed in red.
Negative tone was boosted by stronger than expected build in weekly crude inventories (stocks rose by 3.94 million barrels vs forecasted build of 2.80 million barrels and last week’s draw of 1.05 million barrels) API report showed on Tuesday.
Focus turns towards EIA US crude stocks report , due later today, which is forecasted to show build of 2.82 million barrels compared to 1.89 million barrels build last week.
Fears that US crude stocks may rise more than expected keeps oil price under pressure, along with persisting concerns about soaring US oil output which offsets OPEC-led efforts to tighten oil market by reducing global production.
Break below strong supports at $58.06 (09 Feb low) and $57.68 (rising 100SMA) would spark fresh extension of steep bear-leg from $66.28 high towards targets at $55.81 and $54.80 (07 Dec / 14 Nov troughs).
Alternative scenario requires lift above initial $60.00 barrier and $60.51 (daily cloud top) to sideline immediate downside threats.
Res: 59.29; 60.00; 60.51; 60.91
Sup: 58.58; 58.38; 58.06; 57.68
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The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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