WTI Crude Oil poised for final wave five drop after classic wave four triangle completion

The chart of USOIL displays a mature Elliott Wave structure, suggesting that a double three corrective pattern labelled W-X-Y has likely completed at the April high. The sequence from the March peak now appears to be unfolding as a larger impulsive decline. We've likely completed waves 1, 2, and 3, with wave 4 currently in progress, unfolding as a contracting triangle (a-b-c-d-e)—a classic wave 4 formation especially after a steep wave 3.

Key annotations confirm this:

• The impulsive decline from wave 2 into wave 3 shows clean subdivision,
• Triangle behavior between points a–e is becoming more pronounced, aligning with a sideways corrective wave 4.

Anticipated price action

Technical nuance (wave detail and education)

This setup offers a textbook application of the Guideline of Alternation:

• Wave 2 was sharp and vertical (likely a zigzag),
• Wave 4, in contrast, is unfolding sideways (a triangle), perfectly aligning with alternation expectations.

Triangles typically form in wave 4 positions or B-waves and reflect consolidation before a final thrust. Importantly:

• Each leg (a–b–c–d–e) of the triangle is three waves (a-b-c, corrective),
• The decreasing volume and momentum within this triangle add confidence to this interpretation.

Also of note, the symmetry and containment of wave 4 within converging trendlines add structural clarity—an essential component for confirming triangles in real time.

Concluding summary (recap and risk management notes)

In summary:

• We are likely near the end of a wave 4 triangle within a 5-wave decline from the April peak.
• Wave 5 is anticipated next, with a potential downside extension toward the $50–54 range.
• Key confirmation will be a decisive break below $58, ideally accompanied by an expansion in volume and momentum.
• Invalidation of this count occurs with a break above wave 2 (~$72), which would require a full structural reassessment.

Traders should monitor the completion of wave e, as it will be the final piece of the triangle puzzle. Sharp downside movement following this would validate the setup and offer short-term tactical opportunities.