|

WTI and Brent Crude higher after more Iran, Hormuz Aggression, forex trading US CPI [Video]

As we can see, aggression resumed in Iran, and price action on WTI and Brent Crude has shot up again.

In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on USDCAD, Gold XAUUSD, Silver, XAGUSD, the S&P500, the NASDAQ, the Dow Jones Industrial Average,  WTI and Brent Crude Oil.

Just when we thought that the price of crude oil might return to normal, aggression flared up in Iran again.

Youtube preview

The bottom line is that before the war, we could see up to 140 ships per day passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The latest estimate is 14, or 10% of normal flow.

And, almost no crude or LNG is passing through due to the extra safety and security risk.

This, of course, affects the overall supply and prices rise.

But for traders, we need to see some good news and some idea that this shipping lane is even partially open before we go short on Brent or WTI Crude Oil.

If things get worse, or the hostilities last for a few days, price action may rise again.

Watch the news and check back here on Thursday.

This has had an effect on the US stock markets, with all major indices pulling back.

We see a potential dip buying opportunity on the S&P 500, but we need to get some technical confirmation from a bounce to the upside and your favourite technical indicators, like a turn up from oversold on the stochastic oscillator.

On the NASDAQ, we have the opposite situation with a clear downtrend based on pessimism over tech stocks.

On the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we see an optimistic chart with similar Iran-based pullbacks.

The huge companies in this index will react more to the price of crude, so we may also see price action move to the upside if we get good news regarding the Iran war.

Of course, in the opposite case, the contrary may be true.

We have to look at the weekly charts to get the full picture on gold and silver, with gold almost back to $4,000.

On lower time frames, we see gold in a descending wedge with $4,000 and $3,930 acting as key levels of support.

As you know, when price breaks out of a triangle like this, it could go either way.

When gold and silver fall, it often indicates USD strength, but we are seeing a mixture in USD pairs.

In fact, we see strength against CHF and JPY.

We see weakness against CAD, with USDCAD approaching support, and against NZD and GBP, and neutral against EUR and AUD.

But today and tomorrow, we have important economic news and events which will likely move the markets for USD and CAD pairs, so watch for News Catalyst Fade opportunities.

For example, if we see news moving price action to the upside on USDCAD, we may have an opportunity to trade WITH the trend.

That’s all for now.

CFDs and FX are leveraged products, and your capital may be at risk.

Author

Brad Alexander

Brad Alexander

FX Large Limited

Brad became fascinated with the Currency Markets from a young age and researched fundamental analysis.

More from Brad Alexander
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD strengthens above 1.3350 ahead of US CPI data

The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3360 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid fears of an escalating US-Iran conflict. The US June Consumer Price Index inflation report will take center stage later on Tuesday. 


EUR/USD holds gains near 1.1400 ahead of US CPI

EUR/USD extends gains and retakes 1.1400 in the European session on Tuesday. The US Dollar sees a profit-taking pullback, supporting the pair's rebound. However, the potential upside for the pair might be limited amid renewed US military strikes against Iran and ahead of the US CPI data and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony.

Gold sticks to gains above $4,000 ahead of US CPI, Fed's Warsh

Gold trims a part of its modest intraday recovery gains and remains within striking distance of a nearly two-week low touched earlier this Tuesday. The commodity, however, sticks to a positive bias above the $4,000 psychological mark through the first half of the European session amid mixed cues.

Major Altcoins: XRP, ADA and SOL remain vulnerable as bearish grip tightens

Major altcoins in the crypto market, such as Ripple, Cardano, and Solana, are trading in the red on Tuesday, extending their 2% to 3% decline from the previous day. The technical outlook for XRP, ADA, and SOL shows a near-term bearish bias, with prices trending below their respective 50-day EMAs.

US CPI data set to show inflation cooled in June due to tumbling fuel prices

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the June Consumer Price Index data on Tuesday. The report is expected to show a decline in consumer inflation, driven by the easing of crude Oil prices following the ceasefire announcement between the United States and Iran.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June FOMC meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.