I’m a forensic accountant, so I love earnings season.

Four times a year, companies release their financial and operating numbers to the public. It can be chaotic, even though you could all but set your watch to it.

It’s a regular market mover. When you hear about companies that meet, beat, fell short of failing, or, yes, cheated “expectations,” it’s all about the quarterlies.

For people like me who dig through the numbers – whether it’s to find the tucked-away gems of the market like I do in Hidden Profits, or to root out the Potemkin Village companies like I do in Forensic Investor – earnings season is crucial.

We’re on the brink of the next big data release, so dive into some of the numbers with me.

Recent reports from CNBC, USA Today, and other news outlets suggest that the coming earnings season could be surprisingly strong for U.S. stocks – basically, a continuation of the market rally that began after the November election. They further assert that there’s still too much pessimism about owning stocks and that bodes well for future returns.

I’d like to use a highly technical term in response, if you don’t mind: Hogwash.

According to CNBC, earnings are up 12% versus the same quarter a year ago. While earnings may appear to be strong, they are increasingly a mirage as we enter the ninth year of this bull market.

More and more companies are resorting to “pro forma” results versus Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). And the GAAP is widening. By 2015, GAAP profits were 25% below “pro forma” results. That’s the largest disparity since the bull market began.

Meanwhile, 75% of companies beat earnings estimates. But only 60% topped revenue forecasts. What’s more is that revenue figures can be and often are manipulated as much as bottom-line results. There are numerous ways to pull the wool over investors’ eyes and show top-line growth that’s nothing more than accounting fiction.

Although second-quarter revenue growth will certainly strengthen the bulls’ resolve, it’s the quality of that revenue growth that matters.

Unfortunately, most investors will have no clue about quality. In this era of 140-character sound bites, you have to dig deep into the company’s regulatory filings to determine if the reported numbers are true and sustainable.

My own earnings quality software is flashing more signs of trouble than at any period in recent memory – and I’ve worked through my share of crashes and busts.

Market sentiment and valuations are also frothy.

For example, the Ned Davis Research sentiment composite, which combines numerous market polls, stands at 67.8. Historically, sentiment in excess of 61.5 is too optimistic, with annualized returns of just 2.7% after that level’s been breached. That’s barely above the S&P 500 dividend yield.

Sentiment recently topped out at 73.4 – history tells us it’s never been profitable to own stocks at these levels.

A few people are less bullish than a month or two ago, but sentiment has yet to normalize. Many of the market’s recent gains could quickly be wiped out should the sentiment pendulum swings the other way.

Then you have valuations. There have been suggestions that there’s a “new normal” of higher price-to-earnings ratios than the market has historically witnessed. That could be true, although no one knows what level that might be.

And every time I hear “this time it’s different,” I run the other way.

It’s never different this time. Markets change, the companies that lead the market change, the operators change, but human nature never changes.

Markets tend to overshoot. In both directions.

The median price-to-sales ratio on the S&P 500 is the highest ever, at a time when more and more companies resort to accounting gimmicks so their own numbers to satisfy Wall Street’s short-term quarterly expectations.

While the market could certainly climb higher than these levels, the risk/reward relationship becomes less favorable each passing day.

If history is any guide, about 75% of the companies in the S&P 500 will “beat” earnings. That means very little, however, if management goosed the numbers through accounting chicanery and overstated long-term sustainable cash flow. It’s been going on for decades, with increasing use in recent years.

Unfortunately, it’s the individual investor that’s last to know and gets caught holding the bag.

Be careful out there, and be vigilant about protecting your capital and managing risk.

The content of our articles is based on what we’ve learned as financial journalists. We do not offer personalized investment advice: you should not base investment decisions solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility. Our track record is based on hypothetical results and may not reflect the same results as actual trades. Likewise, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Certain investments such as futures, options, and currency trading carry large potential rewards but also large potential risk. Don’t trade in these markets with money you can’t afford to lose. Delray Publishing LLC expressly forbids its writers from having a financial interest in their own securities or commodities recommendations to readers.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD: A tough barrier remains around 0.6800

AUD/USD: A tough barrier remains around 0.6800

AUD/USD failed to maintain the earlier surpass of the 0.6800 barrier, eventually succumbing to the late rebound in the Greenback following the Fed’s decision to lower its interest rates by50 bps.

AUD/USD News
EUR/USD still targets the 2024 peaks around 1.1200

EUR/USD still targets the 2024 peaks around 1.1200

EUR/USD added to Tuesday’s losses after the post-FOMC rebound in the US Dollar prompted the pair to give away earlier gains to three-week highs in the 1.1185-1.1190 band.

EUR/USD News
Gold surrenders gains and drops to weekly lows near $2,550

Gold surrenders gains and drops to weekly lows near $2,550

Gold prices reverses the initial uptick to record highs around the $$2,600 per ounce troy, coming under renewed downside pressure and revisiting the $2,550 zone amidst the late recovery in the US Dollar.

Gold News
Australian Unemployment Rate expected to hold steady at 4.2% in August

Australian Unemployment Rate expected to hold steady at 4.2% in August

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly employment report at 1:30 GMT on Thursday. The country is expected to have added 25K new positions in August, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen to remain steady at 4.2%.

Read more
Ethereum could rally to $2,817 following Fed's 50 bps rate cut

Ethereum could rally to $2,817 following Fed's 50 bps rate cut

Ethereum (ETH) is trading above $2,330 on Wednesday as the market is recovering following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Meanwhile, Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETF) recorded $15.1 million in outflows.

Read more
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures