When the tape goes quiet the positioning speaks

Positioning speaks

From the outside this session looked like paint drying. Indexes barely moved. No reaction to Case Shiller. No reaction to the Fed minutes. The S&P 500 parked itself right where it started, and the much-discussed Santa rally stalled into a polite cough. Small caps continued their routine of being offered at the cash open and left behind. If you stopped there, you would conclude nothing happened.

But markets rarely tell the truth from the surface. You have to walk the deck.

Underneath, the posture shifted. Yesterday carried a clear risk-off tone. Mega-cap tech underperformed and dragged the broader tape with it. Today, that stance is partially reversed. Pro-cyclical and growth-adjacent sectors quietly led, with communication services and materials doing the heavy lifting. That is not a rush of conviction, but it is a change in body language. At the same time, the advance-decline told a more cautious story, with more stocks in the red than in the green and wide single-stock dispersion. That mix usually signals a market trading inventory, not building exposure.

That fits the calendar. We are closing in on year-end with thin volumes and little fresh information to lean against. When liquidity dries up, price action becomes more about balance than discovery. The market is looking for an angle of repose, a place to lean while waiting for January to bring fresh catalysts.

Momentum continues to underperform. The fast horses are not being chased. Bonds matched the mood. Yields barely moved, with the long end modestly underperforming, but nothing that changes the macro picture. The Fed minutes landed without impact because expectations did not move. The market still prices roughly 60 bps of easing in 2026, well above the dot plot. That gap remains one of the quiet fault lines under rates and equity markets.

The dollar pushed higher again, led by yen weakness, while remaining inside its recent USDJPY up channel. I am nowhere near as bearish on the dollar in 2026 as many market prognosticators. If the US economy holds together and the Fed proves less accommodative than the market hopes, the dollar does not need to roll over.

The yen story has evolved. Over the past 6 months, it has traded much weaker than interest rate differentials alone would justify, suggesting that fiscal concerns in a rising-rate environment are starting to dominate price action. That risk premium is no longer theoretical.

Precious metals rebounded from yesterday’s forced liquidation, confirming the selloff had the fingerprints of positioning stress rather than a change in belief. Gold clawed its way back above $4,400 before fading as profit-taking sellers emerged in the US afternoon, which is entirely typical after a sharp flush. Gold rarely snaps straight back. It usually needs time to rebuild confidence and probe levels methodically. The 70% retracement of this week’s butchery near $4,475 remains the obvious technical waypoint. Silver followed the same arc, tagging 78 before easing, while the normalization in the silver EFP spread suggests the speculative froth has been wrung out and the plumbing has stabilized for now. Bitcoin mirrored the move, bouncing back above $89,000 before fading alongside broader risk.

Copper and platinum also bounced, reinforcing the view that yesterday was about de-risking rather than a macro pivot.

Crude finished unchanged. Early gains were erased by sizable inventory builds, leaving traders stuck weighing geopolitical risk from Venezuela, Russia, and Yemen against growing concerns about a global glut. For now, barrels matter more than headlines.

If you want the cleanest read on near-term psychology, look at options. Volatility is collapsing into year-end. Options volumes have fallen off a cliff after the record pace of Q3 and Q4. Put those together, and the conclusion is simple: nothing is happening.

Support sits at 6,900, then 6,850. Resistance is stacked at 6,920 and 6,950. Below 6,890 remains the risk pivot. As long as the price stays pinned in this pocket, the tape will fall asleep. Step outside it, and liquidity thins quickly, and year-end air pockets come into play.

Zooming out, the broader backdrop still matters. Global equities are poised for their most significant annual gain in 6 years. The MSCI All Country World Index is up roughly 21% with 1 trading day of 2025 remaining. Asian equities are logging a third straight annual gain and the strongest since 2017, with several markets already closed for the year.

The rally survived the April shock tied to tariff headlines and rode a mix of Fed cuts and AI-driven enthusiasm to all-time highs. But momentum has clearly slowed into the turn. Valuations are elevated, and policymakers are divided on how much further easing is warranted.

To push meaningfully higher in 2026, equities will need confirmation that the Fed can deliver at least the 2 rate cuts still priced by the market, with growth unimpeded. For now, investors are waiting.

As the year exhales, we are left marking time. One session left, then the page turns, liquidity returns, and a new set of cunundrums begins to assert itself.