Weekly waves: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Bitcoin

EUR/USD bearish impulse takes a small break

The EUR/USD almost reached 0.95 in early trading this morning:

1. The EUR/USD could have completed wave 5 (green) of wave 3 (orange).

2. The strong bullish bounce once price action reached the strong support at the 0.95 round level probably is a wave A (green) retracement.

3. Price action could face difficulties to move much higher. The Fibonacci retracement levels should act as a strong resistance.

4. A bearish reaction at the Fibonacci levels could confirm the end of wave A and the start of wave B (green).

5. A larger ABC (green) pattern would fit within an expected wave 4 (orange). 

6. A downtrend is expected to resume and take price action at 0.94 and 0.9250 within wave 5 (orange) of waves 3.

GBP/USD crashes 550 pips in early trading

The GBP/USD made a huge drop from 1.0850 down to 1.03 earlier this morning:

1. The GBP/USD 550 pip decline this morning seems to be part of an impulsive wave 3 (yellow).

2. The strong bullish push upwards after the decline is expected to be a wave A (orange) of a larger ABC (orange) within a wave 4 (yellow).

3. The Fibonacci levels are expected to be a resistance zone.

4. A break above the 50% Fibonacci level makes it less likely that the current Elliott Wave analysis - indicating a wave 3 and 4 (yellow) - is correct.

5. A bullish ABC (orange) is expected within the wave 4 (yellow).

6. A downtrend continuation should aim at parity (1.00).

BTC/USD 

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is unable to break through the previous bottom (green lines):

1. The BTC/USD is at an important decision zone: a bearish breakout confirms the downtrend (red arrows).

2. A bullish bounce (blue arrows) could indicate a larger wave C (orange C’) towards the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci resistance zone.

3. A break above the 38.2-50% Fibonacci levels could indicate that the wave 5 (yellow) of wave C (pink) has been completed.

4. A bearish bounce at the Fibonacci resistance levels should signal the end of the wave 4 (yellow).

5. A downtrend continuation aims at $15k and $12.5k within wave C (pink).

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The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method simple wave analysis and trading. For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter