Weekly trades: USD/JPY, CHF/JPY, EUR/CAD, AUD/CAD

Brian Twomey Brian's Investment

USD/JPY from its 106.87 close resides just above solid and multi year supports at 106.53 and 106.04. A break of 106.04 then long term targets at the multi year range lows becomes 102.00's. USD/JPY higher however contains many break point hurdles beginning at 107.89 then 108.26, 108.99, 109.19 and 109.67.

Overall ranges are contained from 106.04 to 109.19 and 109.67. USD/JPY at 106.87 trades at its extremes from its price driver at 109.19. At extremes informs 106.04 lacks any chance to break anytime soon. The lower USD/JPY trades only enhances its extremes and offers to not only trade higher but skyrocket higher.

Seen from USD/JPY currently is about a 100 to 150 pip range yet overall ranges are compressing by the week.

USD/JPY at 109.19 and 109.67 is matched by EUR/USD inability to move higher unless 1.1196 breaks. EUR/USD's 1.1196 overhead has been dropping by the week over many, many months. The week of Januray 4 for example, current 1.1196 was 1.1280. Due to the slow weekly drops to overall price drivers, both USD/JPY and EUR/USD currently engage in a simultaneous race to the bottom. This situation cannot hold in perpetuity as the logjam must eventually break and I would look to EUR/USD higher as EUR/USD not only has ability to move upward but ranges allow for a move higher.

USD/JPY 106.87 close is an interesting number as CHF/JPY main break point for lower is located at 106.87. CHF/JPY retains the same predicament as USD/JPY to weekly range compression. USD/JPY at least contains a 100 -150 pip latitude to its ranges while CHF/JPY is surrounded by many and massive break points.

Lower and multi year supports for CHF/JPY are located ay 109.23, 110.65 then 106.87 and 106.09. To move higher and target 112.00's, CHF/JPY must break 111.45, 111.53, 111.88 and 111.93. For CHF/JPY at 112.00's now reaches the apex to its 20 year range tops. CHF/JPY lacks ability to trade above 112.00's.

EUR/CAD at 1.5400's is massively overbought. Long term target for EUR/CAD is 1.4882 however current solid supports reside at 1.4968 and 1.4954. Typical AUD/CAD trades within a 300 pip range from 0.9228 to 0.8913. At 0.9200's represent extremes and not expected to break anytime soon while a break of 0.8913 informs not only lower but AUD/USD much lower.

EUR/CAD offers a good trade while AUD/CAD offers about a 100 pip trade. CHF/JPY will struggle while USD/JPY offers a decent weekly trade. Attraction to EUR/CAD for this week is USD/CAD and CAD/JPY ranges again are extremely wide. More importantly CAD/JPY ranges finally match USD/CAD. Over many months, CAD/JPY was contained Vs USD/CAD. Explains CAD/JPY lackluster performance over many months. This week, both will trade as equals.

The Trades

USD/JPY: Long 106.71 and 106.55 to target 107.72. Long above 107.89 to target 108.55.

CHF/JPY: Short 111.66 and 111.98 to target 111.17. Short below 111.01 to target 110.35.

EUR/CAD: Short 1.5495 and 1.5504 to target 1.5173. Short 1.5115 to target 1.5028.

AUD/CAD: Short 0.9072 and 0.9098 to target 0.8966. Short below 0.8913 to target 0.8855.

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

EUR/USD weakens to near 1.1900 as traders eye US data

EUR/USD eases to near 1.1900 in Tuesday's European trading hours, snapping the two-day winning streak. Markets turn cautious, lifting the haven demand for the US Dollar ahead of the release of key US economic data, including Retail Sales and ADP Employment Change 4-week average.

GBP/USD stays in the red below 1.3700 on renewed USD demand

GBP/USD trades on a weaker note below 1.3700 in the European session on Tuesday. The pair faces challenges due to renewed US Dollar demand, UK political risks and rising expectations of a March Bank of England rate cut. The immediate focus is now on the US Retail Sales data.

Gold sticks to modest losses above $5,000 ahead of US data

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses through the first half of the European session, though it holds comfortably above the $5,000 psychological mark and the daily swing low. The outcome of Japan's snap election on Sunday removes political uncertainty, which along with signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, remains supportive of the upbeat market mood. This turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the safe-haven precious metal.

Bitcoin Cash trades lower, risks dead-cat bounce amid bearish signals

Bitcoin Cash trades in the red below $522 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after multiple rejections at key resistance. BCH’s derivatives and on-chain indicators point to growing bearish sentiment and raise the risk of a dead-cat bounce toward lower support levels.

Follow the money, what USD/JPY in Tokyo is really telling you

Over the past two Tokyo sessions, this has not been a rate story. Not even close. Interest rate differentials have been spectators, not drivers. What has moved USD/JPY in local hours has been flow and flow alone.

Bitcoin Cash trades lower, risks dead-cat bounce amid bearish signals

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) trades in the red below $522 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after multiple rejections at key resistance. BCH’s derivatives and on-chain indicators point to growing bearish sentiment and raise the risk of a dead-cat bounce toward lower support levels.