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Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: A Wait-and-See Approach

U.S. Review

A Wait-and-See Approach

  • The unanimous decision by the FOMC to keep rates unchanged this week was widely expected, but the committee’s increased caution regarding the outlook reaffirmed its wait-and-see approach to monetary policy.
  • In other news, the Leading Economic Index for February suggests economic growth will continue, but with the positive contributions to the index getting smaller on trend, the index suggests a moderation in the pace of growth.

Global Review

Brexit Uncertainties Persist, Norges Bank Goes Hawkish

  • As the end-March deadline approaches, Brexit developments continue to dominate headlines. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has stated her intention to seek a delay to the deadline, while U.K. parliament might reconvene again to vote on May’s deal. Amid Brexit, the Bank of England held policy rates steady this week as uncertainty is likely to persist for the time being.
  • The Central Bank of Norway opted to raise interest rates at this week’s monetary policy meeting and suggested more hikes may be coming. As other major central banks have become more dovish, Norges Bank has undertaken a more hawkish path as oil prices recover and the domestic economy improves.

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EUR/USD weakens to near 1.1900 as traders eye US data

EUR/USD eases to near 1.1900 in Tuesday's European trading hours, snapping the two-day winning streak. Markets turn cautious, lifting the haven demand for the US Dollar ahead of the release of key US economic data, including Retail Sales and ADP Employment Change 4-week average.

GBP/USD stays in the red below 1.3700 on renewed USD demand

GBP/USD trades on a weaker note below 1.3700 in the European session on Tuesday. The pair faces challenges due to renewed US Dollar demand, UK political risks and rising expectations of a March Bank of England rate cut. The immediate focus is now on the US Retail Sales data. 

Gold sticks to modest losses above $5,000 ahead of US data

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses through the first half of the European session, though it holds comfortably above the $5,000 psychological mark and the daily swing low. The outcome of Japan's snap election on Sunday removes political uncertainty, which along with signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, remains supportive of the upbeat market mood. This turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the safe-haven precious metal.

Bitcoin Cash trades lower, risks dead-cat bounce amid bearish signals

Bitcoin Cash trades in the red below $522 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after multiple rejections at key resistance. BCH’s derivatives and on-chain indicators point to growing bearish sentiment and raise the risk of a dead-cat bounce toward lower support levels.

Follow the money, what USD/JPY in Tokyo is really telling you

Over the past two Tokyo sessions, this has not been a rate story. Not even close. Interest rate differentials have been spectators, not drivers. What has moved USD/JPY in local hours has been flow and flow alone.

Bitcoin Cash trades lower, risks dead-cat bounce amid bearish signals

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) trades in the red below $522 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after multiple rejections at key resistance. BCH’s derivatives and on-chain indicators point to growing bearish sentiment and raise the risk of a dead-cat bounce toward lower support levels.