Weekly column: Why national debt is the real Aries vortex crisis

Review

US President Trump vowed to keep the (U.S.) Hormuz blockade, declaring the Iranian economy was “crashing,” which would force negotiations. Investors are more inclined to look at the state of the U.S. economy as determining how the situation evolves. In the Wile E. Coyote scenario, the U.S. is off the edge of the cliff but happily running on thin air.

—Dr. Paul Donovan, “Crashing Economies,” UBS Morning Comment, UBS, www.ubs.com/cio, May 1, 2026.

“My concern is really about the series of legal attacks on the Fed, which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors,” (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell said at his news conference. “I worry that these attacks are battering the institution.” Trump mocked the decision later Wednesday. Powell wants to stay, he said, “because he can’t get a job anywhere else.”

—Nick Timiraos, ”Powell Won’t Leave. The Fed Won’t Cut. Warsh Will Have to Deal With Both,” The Wall Street Journal, www.wsj.com, May 1, 2026.

It was another interesting week with no real progress on the war front, but still with nasty Scorpio and Plutonian overtones reflective of the Full Moon in Scorpio on May 1 and heading into Pluto turning retrograde mid-week on May 6.

Yet, despite the increasing debt debacle, Crude Oil prices stubbornly remain above $100, and concerns that inflation is not coming down, world stock indexes continue to perform well, with many notching new all-time highs in various regions, especially in the U.S. As economist Dr. Paul Donovan notes, it is as if the U.S. Wile E. Coyote economy is “… off the edge of the cliff but happily running on thin air.” From a cosmic perspective, this may be related to the unusual Jupiter convergence approaching in July, where the Great Benefic (Jupiter) will sextile Uranus, trine Neptune, and be in opposition to Pluto. The first two signatures are consistent with the mindset of “irrational exuberance,” driving stock markets to even higher highs. The last aspect mentioned—Jupiter in opposition to Pluto—is more akin to the possibility of financial panic, debt crisis, and hysteria in world equity markets. Banks need to be careful here, as a sudden loss of depositor confidence may erupt under such a hard Pluto aspect.

Bitcoin and other cryptos may also need to be cautious, as this period can correlate with unexpected news of corruption and/or mismanagement. Such developments have accompanied each four-year cycle collapse in BTC (Bitcoin) so far, during which prices declined 76–84% from their all-time highs, typically made about one year earlier. The all-time high so far was $126K on October 5, 2026. The 4-year low, if it happens, will be due between August and November 2026. More on the cycle in this month’s issue of the new MMA Monthly Crypto report, coming out this Wednesday, May 6, as Pluto turns retrograde. If you trade Crypto, it might be wise to sign up for this new report now.

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, equity markets were mixed. Japan witnessed another new all-time high right on MMA’s April 27^th three-star geocosmic critical reversal date (CRD) as its Nikkei hit 60,903. China’s Shanghai Composite was also strong, rising to 4119, not far from its 10-year high of 4197 made on March 30. But the Australian ASX, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, and India’s Nifty indices experienced corrective downturns most of the week.

Most equity markets were closed in Europe due to the May 1 holiday. But all pulled back into trading cycle lows last week until the last trading day on Thursday, when most followed the U.S. lead and exploded with strong rallies under the favorable Libra Moon (generally stocks like lunar air signs), just before Friday’s Full Moon changed signs into Scorpio, where optimism gives way to seeing things a little more realistically.

In the U.S., the S&P and NASDAQ continued their scream to new all-time highs, consistent with Venus conjoining Uranus as both entered the sign of Gemini last week. Venus-Uranus can either be a breakout to new highs or a reversal, but in the case of the S&P and NASDAQ, it has been an upside breakout, whereas in Europe, it was more of a reversal from a trading cycle low. However, concerns remain in U.S. stocks. Despite the strong rally last week, the DJIA has still not made a new all-time high (ATH) since February 10. The case of intermarket bearish divergence continues in effect until 50,512 is exceeded.

In other markets, both Gold and Silver declined to possible major cycle lows last Wednesday, April 29, well within the orb of the 3-star geocosmic critical reversal period of April 24-27. Bitcoin also pulled back for a trading cycle low on the same day. Crude Oil made a weekly high of 110.53 on Thursday and seems to be locking into a wide trading range between 80.00 and 120.00 as the Persian Gulf blockade remains in effect, with traders bidding between an “end” versus an “escalation” of the Iranian situation. As President Trump mentioned last week, the price of Crude will come down very fast once the war ends, which he continues to proclaim will be very soon. I think this could happen between mid-May and late June due to Mars entering Taurus. Everyone will want a ceasefire and end to the war during that period, to get back to the Taurus’s passion for making money (and love). And with Jupiter entering Leo in late June, the next year is projected to be more of a social and party climate than the last year has been, with Jupiter in emotional Cancer during the Saturn/Neptune conjunction. However, that doesn’t mean the stock market will be bullish during Jupiter in Leo, a time when intermediate or long-term cycle lows are common.

Short-term geocosmics

“Where Americans Are Drawing the Line on Price Increases: Shoppers are buying less where prices are rising fastest, showing that inflation isn’t being driven by demand but by companies passing on costs.”

— Mohamad A El-Erian, The Wall Street Journal, on X, April 28, 2026.

The U.S. national debt now exceeds 100% of gross domestic product, crossing a once-unthinkable threshold… Still, the triple-digit mark is a potent symbol of the fiscal stresses on the U.S. that have been building for decades. Lawmakers in both parties have expressed alarm but given priority to tax cuts and spending increases with clearer short-term political benefits.

—Richard Rubin, “National Debt Now Tops 100% of GDP,” The Wall Street Journal, May 1, 2026.

And now we enter May, the month that gave rise to the popular adage, “Sell in May and Go Away” (until October). Sometimes it works out that way, but not always.

There will be opportunities to test that adage in U.S. stocks this month. First, Mars will square Jupiter on Monday, May 4, which is a fairly strong reversal signature, with a 67% frequency of sharp reversals within four trading days. On Wednesday, May 6, Pluto turns stationary retrograde, which highlights debt crises amid the lack of fiscal or monetary controls by government and/or central banks. On a more mundane level, it can coincide with danger and threats to human life or crop damage, such as the concerns about a drought affecting the worldwide supplies of Wheat, and also due to a fertilizer shortage heightened by the Iran war and blockage of the Straits of Hormuz (or is it just the “Iranian situation?”).

May 8-15 will find Mars in late Aries, conjoining the NYSE natal Saturn, but opposing its Jupiter/Neptune in Libra. This can propel another thrust higher in U.S. stocks, but it can also indicate another sharp reversal period from the highs formed going into this period.

Mars, the god of war, will next ingress into Taurus on May 18 (one day after the NYSE’s solar return of May 17) through June 28, which might lead to serious peace negotiations. Taurus likes stability, not war. Coming out of Aries, the sign ruled by Mars for the prior six weeks, this could bring welcome news.

The most powerful geocosmic signatures for this month will be in effect May 22-28, when the Sun conjoins Uranus in early Gemini and makes an early translation to the Jupiter convergence of mid-July. That is, the Sun will touch off the powerful 3-year Uranus trine Pluto aspect (creative destruction via innovation) during this time. Additionally, Mars will square Pluto on May 25, and Venus will square Saturn on May 28. Watch for early fireworks then, especially with currencies and the U.S. Treasury market, and a new leader takes over the reins of the Federal Reserve Board. Any new lows in Treasuries, and possibly stocks and metals around that period, could represent an excellent buying opportunity for traders as we then head into the July 18-25 peak of “irrational exuberance” versus “hysteria and panic.”

It will be interesting to see which mass psychology will dominate this summer. My bias is that the irrational exuberance comes first, followed by hysteria and a mini-panic, both within two months of that time band.

Thus, the month of May promises some excitement and drama, a little different than the season of the Taurus Sun is usually known for. Of course, the biggest bang is due right after it leaves Taurus for the more volatile Gemini, May 22-28.