Weekly column: The Strait of Hormuz flare-up and the shock rise in Crude Oil

Review

US attacks on Iran follow from Iranian attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping. It is not a great look for the memorandum of misunderstanding. Oil futures prices rose—to levels not seen for two weeks. A stronger reaction has been avoided, perhaps because of how investors view U.S. President Trump’s political position. U.S. retail gasoline prices remain well above pre-war levels, and it is the pre-war level that consumers think of as a “fair” price.

— Paul Donovan, “More Misunderstandings,” UBS Daily Update, July 8, 2026.

Things were looking better for President Trump heading into America’s 250^th birthday on July 4. Oil prices were back under $70 a barrel, the national average for gasoline prices was well below $4 a gallon. The DJIA was making new all-time highs, and inflation expectations were declining, leading to a modest decline in long-term interest rates. However, there was a surprise guest at this year’s birthday party with the Mars/Uranus conjunction taking place in Gemini on, you guessed it, July 4.

Mars can be aggressive and warlike, while Uranus is sudden, unpredictable, and explosive. So, it really is no surprise that early this past week, news broke that Iran had attacked three commercial ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz (right as Neptune turned retrograde, no less). The U.S. response was swift and decisive, with renewed military strikes that could continue for the foreseeable future. The U.S. also revoked waivers that allowed Iranian oil to be sold on the global market. Suffice it to say, “TACOs” don’t seem to have been on the menu at the White House Fourth of July picnic this year. However, I can’t help but wonder whether they would return as the main dish if there were a picnic lunch celebration on Labor Day.

After strong reactions across markets at the start of the week (negative for stocks, Gold, and T-Notes, and positive for Crude Oil), most markets stabilized, and in the case of the Nasdaq and S&P, even closed the week with modest gains. To me, this signals that the majority of market participants don’t think the new escalation between Iran and the U.S. will last much longer, but time will tell. It does, however, fit our narrative that the separation between Saturn and Neptune indicates greater efforts toward peace and ceasefires, and fewer toward escalation into a world war. Saturn and Neptune conjunctions also correlate with implosions in Russian governance, and this has recently become increasingly evident in global geopolitics with Trump’s pivot toward providing greater support to Ukraine at last week’s G-7 meeting. This isn’t playing well in Russia.

While the S&P and Nasdaq were higher on the week, the Dow closed with a modest decline. However, the bigger story is the continued intermarket bearish divergence between the U.S. stock indices. The Dow is fresh off an all-time high achieved on July 7, while the other indices have yet to take out their June highs. This will be an important piece to the puzzle if the divergence continues into the intense geocosmic period of July 17–20, the orb of which begins this week.

There was notable strength in European stock indices such as the German DAX and Swiss Market Index. Both actually led the Dow by hitting new all-time highs on Monday, July 6, but then spent the week consolidating those gains. China’s Shanghai Composite had an up-and-down week while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up sharply but remains relatively weak compared to other world indices. Japan’s Nikkei continued to consolidate, holding key support levels, potentially setting up for another run to all-time highs.

Crude Oil shot up above $76 a barrel on the U.S./Iran escalation but gave some of that back into the close of the week. Higher energy prices undoubtedly played an important role in the rise in Treasury yields (a decline in bond prices). The 10-Year T-notes are back to testing their May 19 lows, and the question now is whether that low will hold or not. The decline in bonds led to a rise in real yields, which is what sent Gold into a tailspin early in the week. Like stocks, Gold recovered, as did Silver, Platinum, and Copper. It is also interesting that all the metals continue to hold their late June lows so far.

The hottest action of the week was in the agricultural space. In the softs, Cocoa futures hit the highest price since last December while Coffee launched itself 18% higher on Monday alone! Even Cotton hit a new monthly high and is confirming June as an important low. Speaking of June lows, Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat have really come alive over the last few weeks. I have touched on the grain markets and their connection to Saturn/Neptune conjunctions and oppositions in past columns that I have written. The last one occurred in February of this year and portends a period of rising grain prices. Now, with the help of Jupiter entering the fire sign of Leo, we are getting the makings of a weather rally for the U.S. crops. Weather rallies are notoriously hard, sharp, fast, and then over. However, this could just be a precursor to the real fireworks that could happen in this space into early 2027 should the projected super El Niño pattern continue to verify.

In crypto-land, it was rather dull, all things considered, even though both Bitcoin and Ethereum finished the week with modest gains. Perhaps the most interesting item in this space was the July 6 filing by Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which stated that it had sold 3,588 BTC between June 29 and July 5. Readers may remember that in the June 8 column, I found it interesting that Strategy had sold a token amount of 32 Bitcoins within a month of Uranus leaving the sign of Taurus. Is there a trend developing here? Does anyone smell smoke? To be fair, smoke doesn’t always lead to a fire, but then again, a fire doesn’t happen without smoke.

Short-term geocosmics

 But the President is right that his tariffs are at work—in destroying U.S. jobs and raising prices. The U.S. has lost some 75,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2025, including 25,900 in motor vehicle and parts production…. There’s no question his tariffs are raising costs for U.S. manufacturers. At the same time, foreign retaliation has hurt America’s farmers and depressed purchases of agricultural equipment.

—The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board, “How Trump’s Tariffs Really ‘Work, “ The Wall Street Journal, July 10, 2026.

Mercury is retrograde until July 23. Expect delays, misunderstandings, or arguments from misinterpretations, lost emails/texts, plans having to be redone, decisions having to be reversed, etc. Basically, all the little things that can make life just a little more challenging. In trading, markets can reverse direction every 1–4 days, as occurred in many financial and commodity markets this past week. This is frustrating for traders as normal signals fail to be as reliable.

However, this Mercury-the-trickster chaos comes to an end right as one of the most potent geocosmic periods of the year takes place. As Ray outlined nicely in last week’s column, “We must also keep in mind that the first of five trines between Uranus and Pluto (lasting into spring 2028) will take place on July 17, followed by Jupiter in sextile to Uranus, trine to Neptune, and in opposition to Pluto, July 20-21 (the “Jupiter Convergence of 2026”). The first two aspects mentioned here are indicative of a “melt-up” in financial markets (like stocks). The last one (Jupiter/Pluto opposition) is symbolic of a financial crisis, often precipitated by a debt crisis, corporate bankruptcy, credit downgrade, or bank run.”

 With stocks shrugging off early-week losses, they are still on track for a potential phase of “irrational exuberance” this summer. However, trends don’t last indefinitely, and sometimes change can happen suddenly. As the great Warren Buffett is attributed to have said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

Speaking of Warren Buffett, I was sent an “X” post by @adityapandeydev that offers several points attributed to an interview with Mr. Buffett on what actually makes life successful. One of the pearls of wisdom bestowed was “You become whoever you spend your time with. You drift in the direction of the people around you. So, pick people better than you. The biggest pick of your life is your spouse. Marry someone a little better than you, and hope they don’t figure it out too fast.”

I can attest that no truer words have ever been spoken! I admit that I completely “outkicked my coverage” when it comes to my wife, and by some miracle she hasn’t realized it…yet! So, with this in mind, wouldn’t it be prudent to heed Mr. Buffett’s advice and take some chips off the table if we indeed see a “melt-up” in the stock market as the geocosmic landscape suggests is possible?