Weekly Column: The investor mood is euphoric now

Review and preview 

“Investor psychology remaining optimistic is driving the rally in this market,” said Eugene Profit, CEO at Profit Investments, said Tuesday on CNBC’s ‘Closing Bell Overtime.” – Carmen Reincke and Sarah Min, November 23, 2022, www.cnbc.com.

“It is now clear that QE Was a Colossal Policy Mistake.” – Judy Sheldon, in an article written by Allison Schrager on Bloomberg News, November 22, 2022.

It was a holiday week in the U.S., but the DJIA continued to rally to new multi-month highs, even exceeding its previous primary high of 34,282 made on August 16. This fits the expected pattern of several Jupiter transits that were in effect November 15-23. The S&P and NASDAQ also had decent rallies last week, but neither was able to take out their highs of the prior week, and remain well below their previous primary cycle crests of mid-August. It’s shaping up to be a case of intermarket bearish divergence in a 2-star geocosmic critical reversal zone if the latter two indices cannot exceed their highs of November 15.

Similar divergences were noted in other world stock indices. In Europe, the German DAX rallied to its highest level since early June. However, the Zurich SMI, Netherlands AEX, and London FTSE are still below their highs of August.

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, India’s NIFTY was the leader, soaring to 18,534 on Friday, November 24, very close to its all-time high of 18,604 recorded on October 19, 2021. The Australian ASX was strong too, rising to 7457 on Friday, which exceeded its previous cycle high in August. But that was not the case in Japan where the Nikkei’s rally fell short of its August 17 high, and neither the Shanghai Composite nor the Hang Seng could take out their highs of the previous week. China continues to lag other world indices in its ongoing fight to control COVID via lockdowns. The fight is taking a toll on their economy, and by extension, causing economic concerns for other nations of the world as well.

In other markets, the FTX crypto exchange collapse (and possible scandal) continue to weigh heavily on the crypto universe. It’s founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, born March 6, 1992, is under one of our classic bankruptcy transits (Uranus in hard aspect to Venus or Jupiter or ruler of the second house). It’s even more pronounced because transiting Saturn is also involved, conjoining his natal Saturn. Now this doesn’t mean everyone with this transit goes bankrupt. But it does indicate a period where one has to make sure their financial outlays don’t exceed revenues and income, or it could get very painful. In any event, as this crypto crisis continues, Bitcoin dropped to a new two-year low of 15,479 last week, but Ethereum held above its low of 1071 made on November 10. Both are holding these support zones, but they can’t seem to get a lift above resistance areas yet.

Crude Oil had a nice run after last week’s column when  it jumped up to 82.30 on Tuesday, November 22, following Monday’s near-yearly low of 75.27. However, by Friday, it was back down to 76.28 on the close. Gold and Silver remained below their highs of November 15. But Gold was interesting because it fell from a high of 1791.80 on November 15 to a low of 1719 on November 22, right into support levels given in the MMA reports, and then rallied back to 1761 the next day on Friday’s high.

Once again, the abundance of Jupiter signatures proved to be mostly bullish for stocks, but not so good for precious metals. The presence of Jupiter will now fade into the background as new geocosmic signatures get ready for an interesting December.

Short-term geocosmics and longer-term thoughts 

“We contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.” – Winston Churchill as quoted by Andy Kessler, “The Cure? Cut Taxes and Spending,” Wall Street Journal, November 7, 2022.

The favorable Jupiter signatures are over, but there is still plenty of Sagittarian energy under this market for a while, and Sagittarius is the sign that Jupiter rules. The Sun, Mercury, and Venus are all there through the first week of December and could continue to keep equity prices elevated. However, one needs to be aware that Jupiter is giving way to Neptune as the planetary leader of the collective psychology through the first half of December. Neptune is a lot like Jupiter, and both co-rule Crude Oil. But they have major differences too. Whereas Jupiter can be boastful and loud as it makes its presence (and importance) known to all, Neptune prefers to hide in the shadows and give glimpses of Nirvana, or idyllic thoughts. Neither is very rational and both are given to moods of euphoria. But Neptune is like a stealth activity, even deceptive, and often gives intentional misdirection to avoid being recognized, whereas Jupiter is bold and right in your face.

Starting on December 1 and lasting until December 15, the Sun, Venus, Mars, and Neptune will be dancing to a mutable T-square with one another.  It’s like looking for love and fortune in all the wrong places. And yet, financial markets (especially stock indices) may be prone to a bout of irrational exuberance on the hopes that things are better than they really are. It’s an excellent period to hype something you want people to believe, even though that “thing” is not ready for prime-time exposure. It’s a favorable marketing period, but best to avoid promises of false information that lead people to believe in something that cannot or will not be delivered.

It starts with Venus in opposition to retrograde Mars on Thursday, December 1. Attraction and desire are strong. But then on the weekend, December 3-4, Neptune turns direct and Venus squares it. Now it gets irrational, like an infatuation. The following week, December 8 and then December 14, the fiery Sun gets involved. First it is in opposition to the fiery retrograde Mars, and then it squares the watery Neptune. It’s a lot of steam and a lot of rumors, but no facts. Still, it can correspond to sharp price movements in financial markets, especially within four trading days of December 2-5 (weekend), and again at the end, on December 14. With Neptune, you might think it will be peaceful and calm. But it won’t be because the Sun and Mars are not interested in peace and calm. The want attention, and with Neptune, they might make something up and that becomes the rumor that enchants the market to dip and swoon and then try to recover.

The energy sector, and in particular Crude Oil, is again highlighted, just as it was during November 15-23. Maybe Trader Joe finally gets his $67-72 Crude Oil trade off that he proudly announced to the world was his strategy for buying back the reserves of the nation that he sold to drive prices down. Then again, with Neptune prominent, maybe he misses getting his wish if he’s not paying attention. Neptune is notorious for promises, hopes, and wishes that aren’t quite realized, often due to inattention or forgetfulness. It’s like something’s not quite right, but you can’t put your finger on just what it is, or isn’t. We can hope he has his price alert on and doesn’t miss the train (trade) before it leaves the station.

So my message to everyone for the first two weeks of December is: enjoy yourself, maybe even allow yourself to get a crush on someone. But understand that it’s probably not love or the real thing.

Also note that the first two weeks of December may be leading up to a real awakening as we approach December 23. That’s when the third and final semi-square between Jupiter and Uranus takes place. If the markets are rising (Neptune and Sagittarius), be careful, for the prior two times this Jupiter/Uranus semi-square unfolded (May 11 and September 28), it resulted in a sharp selloff and a low into and a little beyond that aspect.

The investor mood is euphoric now. It may not be quite so exuberant by December 23 if this aspect repeats the pattern of the first two passes. It’s like the dreams and romantic illusions of Neptune just got a rude awakening. Things aren’t what they appear to be, and you can’t believe anything you read, hear or see. But you can believe in yourself and those you know to be trustworthy. The others? Not so much. It’s the holiday season, so enjoy those you love. But know that with Neptune highlighted,  it is also the season of scam artists and contagions. Don’t be a victim. Be alert, be safe, and take good care of your health.