US Core PCE (Apr) – 30/05 – Anyny justification that the Fed needs for its currently cautious policy when it comes to further rate cuts is likely to be borne out by the latest inflation numbers for April as some tariff effects start to get priced into the inflation numbers. Currently at 2.7% on a quarterly basis, up from the 2.1% seen at the end of Q4, there is little likelihood of a sharp slowdown in the next 2 quarters as US businesses try to absorb the higher costs and the tariff effects that may well make prices stickier than they might be in the months ahead.
US Q1 GDP – 29/05 – There’s not going to be too much to see here when it comes to the latest update for US Q1 GDP. We already know that the US economy contracted in Q1 due to a sharp surge in imports as US companies brought forward the purchase of inventory to head off the implementation of tariffs at the start of April. We also know that government spending was a factor in the slowdown as DOGE cuts took effect.
On the plus side we saw increases in business investment, as well as consumer spending which doesn’t speak to an economy that is struggling. A lot has been made that US consumer spending has slowed during the first quarter; however, this is likely to have been due to the cold weather in January, and then there was the LA fires. March retail sales saw a big rebound of 1.7% which suggests some pent-up demand as well as brought forward spending before prices rise in April. This might suggest that we could see a modest upgrade from the original -0.3% to a slightly higher number.
Fed Minutes - 28/05 – Even though the US economy contracted by -0.3% in Q1, there’s been little else in the most recent economic data to suggest the US economy is struggling with the jobs market continuing to look resilient. The most recent payrolls report showed 177k jobs added in April with unemployment remaining steady at 4.2%, while recent inflation numbers have shown little sign of slowing markedly.
When the FOMC met a few days later there was a notable shift in tone when it came to the statement, with uncertainty about the economic outlook increasing further, stating that the risks of higher unemployment and inflation have both risen. This is a problem for the Fed’s dual mandate given that these two items could move in the same direction when any policy response may well hinder one over the other. The implementation of tariffs by the US government on goods coming into the country is a problem the US central bank could do without, along with the interventions by President Trump that Powell should start cutting rates immediately. The Fed was correct in its assessment that the big influx of imports had distorted the GDP numbers, and wasn’t even of itself a particularly negative reflection of how the US economy has been performing.
The biggest concern is likely to be the sharp drop in US consumer confidence levels in the last few months, however again this could quickly reverse if the US government begins to realise that its tendency to pick fights at every turn is doing more harm than good domestically. Powell’s caution is understandable given the circumstances with this week’s minutes likely to reinforce the central bank's determination not to be coerced by political pressure when it comes to doing what is best for the US economy.
US Consumer Confidence (Apr) – 27/05 – One of the more notable trends over the past few months has been the sharp slowdown in the confidence of the US consumer when it comes to the economy. In the last few months, we’ve seen a sharp drop from the levels we saw at the end of last year when it was at 104.7 to the levels we are seeing now.
In the most recent set of numbers at the end of April we saw another slowdown to 86, down from 93.9, and the lowest level since Covid. The sharp fall in April is perhaps not surprising given the sharp sell off in stock markets at the start of the month as the unveiling of the new tariff regime was unveiled on our TV screens at the start of that month. As we come to the end of May, we could well see a pickup in the wake of a hasty retreat being enacted in response to the ensuing market turmoil, although we are still expected to remain in the high 80’s. Despite all the prevailing uncertainty US consumer spending does appear to have held up reasonably well despite the fall in confidence, with the most recent retail sales data showing a gain of 0.1%, which admittedly was still a sharp fall from the 1.7% in March.
Kingfisher Q1 26 – 28/05 – Since reporting its full year numbers back in March which saw the shares fall towards the lows of the year, we’ve seen a decent rally with the share rising to their highest levels since October last year. The initial share price reaction did seem somewhat jarring, given the numbers weren’t that bad, with the usual suspects acting as the main drag.
Adjusted pre-tax profits of £528m were in the middle of its £510m-£540m consensus guidance, with sales of £12.8m down 1.7% on the previous year. The expectation of an additional £145m in operating costs over the next 12 months saw profit guidance for the upcoming year cut to between £480m and £540m, again not surprising but certainly not awful.
The company’s French operation continues to be its Achilles heel with income there collapsing to £95m down from £139m the previous year as full year sales declined 6.2%, Castorama down 6.5% and Brico Depot down 5.7%, begging the question why management see fit to persevere with a business that is such a drag and has been for some time. Income from the UK and Ireland increased 0.6% to £558m, with Screwfix annual sales seeing an increase of 1%.
Nvidia Q1 26 - 28/05 – In the aftermath of Nvidia’s Q4 results the shares subsequently slid back to their lowest levels since May last year in the aftermath of tariff “liberation day” although that did prove to be the low point with shares rallying since. In the context of the numbers themselves they didn’t disappoint. Having guided for Q4 revenue of $37.5bn, the company comfortably surpassed that number with $39.3bn, a 12% increase on Q3, and a 78% increase over the same quarter a year ago. Data centre was again at the forefront of this surge with $35.6bn, up from $30.8bn in Q3 and a 93% rise from 2023.
Full year revenue rose to a record $130.5bn, an increase of 114%. In a sign that increased competition was exerting downward pressure on margins, these fell slightly to 73% down 1.6% on Q3.
Guidance for Q1 26 is for revenues of $43bn, +/- 2% with operating margins set to slip further to between 70.6% to 71% in a sign that while revenues remain strong, competition may well erode margins further from their currently lofty heights. With concerns about tariffs mostly front of mind there is also concern about its Blackwell chips which has pushed up expenses as it looks to get them to market. The entry of DeepSeek has also caused some concern given its claims that it can complete some AI tasks with chipsets that cost a fraction of Nvidia’s.
Best Buy Q1 26 – 29/05 – When Best Buy reported its Q4 and full year numbers back in March the shares dropped sharply despite beating on both revenues of $13.95bn, and profits of $2.58 for the quarter. Despite beating on revenues, they were still 4.8% below the levels last year, with CEO Corie Barry warning that prices would have to go up if the proposed US tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada came into effect, with the shares falling to 5-year lows in April.
The increase in prices is down to the fact that Best Buy sources 55% of its product in China and 20% from Mexico.
This ultimately is what seems to be getting up the nose of the US President with his current tariff policy, however this is the rub, even if Best Buy brings more of its supply chain into the US prices will still have to go up, given the cost of production will increase as well. The increased cost of supply due to tariff costs could well see prices rise in the back half of 2026. Full year revenue for 2025 came in at $41.53bn, a decline of 4.4% on 2024, with expectations for FY2026 expected to see this come in between $41.4bn and $42.2bn.
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