Volatility rising, crypto correcting and Dollar gearing up steam

Frank Walbaum

Important news for the week

Wed, 05th, 14:15 CET US ADP employment change.
Thu, 06th, 13:00 CET UK BoE interest rate decision.
Fri, 07th, 14:30 CET US NFP employment data.
Fri, 07th, 14:30 CET CA Unemployment rate.

US trade wars

It seems that Donald Trump will continue with adding fresh tariffs to most trading partners. He might use these tactics in order to generate better trading results with other countries in the long run. The situation reminds traders on Trump’s first Presidency, where some tweet messages caused markets to move erratically. It might be interesting to observe how other countries will react as the European Union won’t be in bad shape in this matter for example.

Market talk

The week starts with fresh volatility in markets. After the implementation of new tariffs, most markets seem to face profit-taking for now. In particular the crypto space has lost some steam with XRP initially trading well below the USD 2.0000 level again. Also equities had lost some momentum as most indices opened trading lower this week. Furthermore also the Dollar had started to trade below important support levels, potentially indicating further negative momentum ahead. On the other hand currently a slight retracement in most markets can be seen. It might be too early to say whether the correction will be over now or another wave of selling pressure might be seen.

Tendencies in the markets

Equities weak, USD stronger, cryptos weak, oil positive, Silver positive, Gold positive, JPY sideways.

Author

Frank Walbaum

USD/JPY eyes August swing low, near 155.20 ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY retests the August monthly swing low during the Asian session on Friday as a more hawkish repricing of BoJ rate-hike bets and a suspected intervention continue to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses amid soft US bond yields, further weighing on the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200; US NFP awaited

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7200, near its highest level since mid-May, as bulls await the US NFP report for more cues on the Fed's policy path before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level in over a week and acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the RBA's hawkish tilt.

Gold tumbles as blockbuster US NFP lift US Dollar, Treasury yields

Gold (XAU/USD) falls sharply on Friday, snapping a two-day recovery after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised strongly to the upside. The metal briefly climbed above $4,500 on Thursday, gaining nearly 2%, but has since erased a large part of that advance.

Crypto’s $638 million buyback boom may not be as bullish as it looks

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols reportedly spent $638 million to buy back their native tokens in August, up 17% from a year earlier. On the surface, the buyback trend suggests the cryptocurrency industry is maturing fast, adopting one of Wall Street’s oldest tools to bolster valuations and distribute revenue. The headline becomes less impressive once the number is opened up.

Why hawkish Bank of Japan expectations aren't enough to sustain the Japanese Yen rally

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced a sudden burst higher after falling back below the 160.00 psychological mark against the US Dollar (USD) earlier this week amid a more hawkish repricing of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.