Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
The USDTRY pair spiked to 3.8330, the highest in one month on Tuesday, after downside attempts were repeatedly contained by the base of rising daily cloud.
Fresh bullish acceleration broke above important resistance at 3.8131 (daily Kijun-sen) and 3.8262 (Fibo 38.2% of 3.9814/3.7303 pullback), but gains were so far short-lived, as subsequent pullback brought the price back below 3.80 handle.
However, signs of basing are evident as recovery rally from 3.7303 (correction low of 05 Jan where pullback from 3.9814 peak bottomed) formed higher highs and higher lows, signaling reversal.
Recovery broke above initial barrier at 3.7890 (20SMA) which now acts as initial support, but needs to close above cracked Fibo barrier at 3.8262 to generate stronger bullish signal for further retracement of 3.9814/3.7303 bear-leg.
Near-term price action is in the middle of thick daily cloud and extended recovery through cloud top (3.8963) is needed to confirm reversal.
Underlying uptrend is likely to resume, as Doji reversal pattern has formed on weekly chart and the greenback is regaining traction after suffering losses.
Focus turns towards Turkish Central Bank's decision on policy meeting on Thursday. Wide expectations that the CBRT will hold interest rates despite double-digit inflation are prevailing in the markets.
Such scenario would deflate lira and risk retest of recent USDTRY's record high at 3.9814 as well as challenge psychological 4.00 barrier, break of which would spark fresh bullish acceleration.
Res: 3.8131; 3.8262; 3.8558; 3.8855
Sup: 3.7890; 3.7816; 3.7666; 3.7606
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD surges above 0.6600 on soft US jobless claims
The Australian Dollar rallied against the US Dollar on Thursday, printed gains of more than 0.60%, due to the Greenback remained offered following a softer than expected US jobs report. The AUD/USD trades back above the 0.6600 threshold as Friday’s Asian session begins.
EUR/USD climbs over 1.0780 on broad-market risk appetite recovery
EUR/USD gained ground on Thursday, finding upside on the week after the US Dollar broadly fell back after rising US Initial Jobless Claims sparked renewed hope of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Gold marches higher as weak jobless claims, increase Fed rate cut speculation
Gold price resumed its uptrend on Thursday and climbed more than 1% as US Treasury yields dropped, undermining the Greenback's appetite. Labor market data from the United States was softer, increasing the chances for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve despite dealing with inflationary pressure.
Ethereum waiting on a bullish trigger, Consensys CEO takes a jab at the SEC
Ethereum co-founder alleges that the SEC aims to stifle innovation through its enforcement actions against Ethereum-related companies. Grayscale CEO says he's optimistic the SEC would approve its spot ETH ETF application.
Dow Jones Industrial Average gains 330 points as investors celebrate rising unemployment claims
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) found further gains on Thursday as investors bet on Fed rate cuts to come after US Initial Jobless Claims rose to a multi-month high.