USD rises as markets brace for jobs report, USD could see added strength if Supreme Court rule

With events in Venezuela seemingly consigned into memory remarkably swiftly, focus this week has turned back to economic news.

Data so far in 2026 suggests that the US economy remains in a “low hire, low fire” state. The ADP employment number pointed to only modest growth in job creation in the private sector (+41k), although jobless claims remain remarkably low (208k), indicating that layoff are contained for now.

All eyes will turn to this afternoon’s nonfarm payrolls data for December, and a resumption to normal service following the disruption created by the government shutdown.

Consensus is for a NFP number around the 60k mark, which would be just about enough to keep up with the pace of growth in the labour force. This means that even a relatively small number is unlikely to materially bring forward expectations for Fed easing (the next cut is not fully priced in until June).

Of secondary importance will be today’s Supreme Court verdict on Trump’s tariffs, namely the settling of the case as to whether or not the American president illegally used his emergency powers in order to justify his protectionist policies.

These legal challenges have tended to be non-event for markets in recent months, given the various legal levers available to the Trump administration.

Worst case scenario, the US is forced to refund billions of dollars to importers in the event that the president loses, but we think that his tariff plans are highly unlikely to be derailed in the long-term.

We could see some dollar strength should Trump indeed lose the ruling (remember the tariffs are viewed as negative for the US economy), but any gains would likely be modest.