Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
USD/JPY
The run higher has been showing increasing signs of fatigue in recent days. The daily candlesticks throughout this week show consolidation and a degree of uncertainty over the strength of the uptrend channel. Effectively posting two “doji” candles in a row, the bull run has stalled and this morning is beginning to turn into reverse. A decisive close lower today could trigger some profit-taking. Momentum indicators are beginning to tail off and roll over. The Stochastics are this morning crossing lower (no confirmation sell signal quite yet) whilst RSI, which has stalled around 60 in recent days, is also pulling lower. We have been looking at the hourly chart for potential deterioration and it is now beginning to come. The hourly RSI has been holding well above 40 for the past couple of weeks and has now faltered under it, whilst the MACD lines have dropped below neutral. Hourly moving averages are rolling over too. Resistance has been left at 111.70 and the first important near term support at 110.05 is being eyed. A move below 109.65 adds to corrective momentum and below 109.30 would confirm.
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