Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
USD/JPY
The weakness of the dollar came throughout the major pairs yesterday, but the yen has been even weaker. This relative yen weakness has driven Dollar/Yen to breakout above 108.10 resistance in the past couple of sessions. This is a key move which effectively ends what has been almost two months of consolidation. New upside targets can now be derived. The breakout of 108.10 completed a base pattern (or a range breakout) which effectively targets a move towards 110.00 now. We have also seen good confirmation in the new move higher with a second positive candlestick yesterday and early moves higher today. The key near term test is now the April high of 109.35 and this is set to come under pressure. There has been a notable improvement in momentum indicators on the breakout. The 14 day RSI rising into the mid-60s, MACD rising above neutral and Stochastics pulling above 80 all confirm the breakout. It points to buying into intraday/near term weakness now. The breakout band 107.90/108.10 is now good support, whilst the hourly chart shows 108.40/108.80 is building too as a near term buy zone.
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