USD/JPY outlook: Eases from new high, traders remain cautious of intervention risk

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

USDJPY was a tad lower on Friday but remains close to new peak at 161.95 (Thursday / 3 July 2025) and in the zone where Japanese authorities may intervene.

Profit-taking at the end of the week and on overbought daily studies was mainly behind today’s easing, which is likely going to be limited, as dollar remains well supported by strong expectations for Fed rate hike, as well as gap in interest rates between the US and other major economies (particularly BoJ rates).

The pair is on track for another weekly gain and second consecutive monthly advance; however, traders remain cautious about looming intervention.

Daily RSI is emerging from overbought territory though overall picture on daily chart remains firmly bullish.

Rising 10DMA (161.21) marks initial support, followed by 20DMA (160.65) and psychological 160 level, which should contain extended dips to keep larger bulls intact.

Res: 161.95; 162.89; 163.57; 164.24

Sup: 161.21; 160.65; 160.31; 160.00

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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