Economics week ahead

Wells Fargo Research Team Wells Fargo

U.S. week ahead

Warsh speaking • Wednesday

FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh is set to deliver his first "Fed speak" at the ECB’s Sintra Forum alongside central bankers from across the globe. We doubt that Warsh will provide much insight on the near‑term policy path and instead emphasize more structural views on the future of U.S. central banking in the years ahead.

We do not expect much forward guidance beyond limited remarks that center on price stability and patience. His comments on structural central banking topics will probably be similar to what he said at the most recent press conference as it relates to communication tools, the Fed's balance sheet, alternative data, AI and productivity, and so forth. Although we don't expect it, we will be listening closely for any guidance on where Warsh's views lie as it relates to the near-term policy outlook as well as the longer-run neutral rate.

Our base case is for the FOMC to keep the fed funds rate steady at current levels through year-end 2027, with risks tilted towards a few rate hikes if the employment and inflation data come in hotter than expected over the next few months.

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Wells Fargo Research Team

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