|

USD/JPY forex Elliott Wave technical analysis [Video]

U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen (USDJPY) day chart

USDJPY Elliott Wave technical analysis

Function: Trend
Mode: Impulsive
Structure: Navy blue wave 3
Position: Gray wave 1
Next Lower Degrees Direction: Navy blue wave 3 (initiated)
Details: Navy blue wave 2 appears completed, and navy blue wave 3 is currently active.
Wave Cancel Invalid Level: 149.495

The USD/JPY currency pair, when examined through Elliott Wave theory on the daily chart, is currently displaying a trend phase, marked by an impulsive movement mode. The primary wave structure identified is the navy blue wave 3, indicating a strong and ongoing downward trend.

At present, the market is positioned at gray wave 1, signifying the beginning of the first phase of a larger downward movement. This gray wave 1 is part of the broader navy blue wave 3, which has already commenced, suggesting continued bearish momentum in the market.

Prior to the development of navy blue wave 3, the market completed navy blue wave 2, a corrective phase that typically precedes a robust upward movement. The conclusion of navy blue wave 2 marks the end of the correction and the start of a new impulsive wave, signaling the continuation of the downtrend as navy blue wave 3 progresses.

The analysis underscores that the market's direction aligns with the next lower degrees of trend, highlighting the continuation of navy blue wave 3. This wave is particularly significant in Elliott Wave analysis, as it often represents a considerable and sustained price movement, reinforcing the expectation of further decline in the USD/JPY market.

A crucial level to monitor is 149.495, identified as the wave cancel invalid level. If the market falls below this level, the current Elliott Wave count would be invalidated, suggesting that the anticipated downward movement may not materialize as expected. This level serves as a key threshold for traders, who should reassess the market structure if it is breached.

Summary:
The USD/JPY daily chart analysis indicates that the market is in an impulsive trend phase, with navy blue wave 3 currently unfolding after the completion of navy blue wave 2. The downward movement is expected to persist, with 149.495 being a critical level to watch for potential changes in the market's direction.

Forex24.thumb.png.4ec17b1fc0f777b568332b123e7725ff.png

U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen (USDJPY) 4 hour chart

USDJPY Elliott Wave technical analysis

Function: Trend
Mode: Impulsive
Structure: Orange wave 3
Position: Navy blue wave 3
Next Lower Degrees Direction: Orange wave 3 (initiated)
Details: Orange wave 2 of 1 appears completed, with orange wave 3 now active.
Wave Cancel Invalid Level: 149.495

The USD/JPY currency pair, when analyzed using Elliott Wave theory on the 4-hour chart, is currently exhibiting a trend phase characterized by impulsive movement. The primary wave structure identified in this analysis is orange wave 3, signaling the continuation of a strong downward trend.

The market's current position is within navy blue wave 3, which is part of the broader orange wave 3 structure. This positioning indicates that the market is amidst a significant downward movement, which is typical for wave 3 in Elliott Wave analysis, often recognized as the most powerful and extended wave within an impulsive sequence.

Before reaching this stage, the market completed orange wave 2, a corrective phase that generally precedes a strong upward movement. The completion of orange wave 2 suggests the end of a short-term correction and the onset of the next impulsive wave, orange wave 3. This wave is now active, indicating that the downward momentum is expected to persist.

The analysis underscores that the market's direction aligns with the next lower degrees, further supporting the ongoing development of orange wave 3. The completion of orange wave 2 signifies that the market has likely finished its corrective phase and is now focused on moving lower in wave 3.

A critical level to monitor is 149.495, identified as the wave cancel invalid level. If the market falls below this level, the current Elliott Wave count would be invalidated, suggesting that the expected downward movement may not materialize as anticipated. This level serves as an important threshold for traders, as a breach would indicate a potential shift in the market structure.

Summary:
The USD/JPY 4-hour chart analysis suggests that the market is in an impulsive trend phase, with orange wave 3 currently unfolding after the completion of orange wave 2. The downward movement is expected to continue, with 149.495 being a crucial level to watch for any changes in the market's direction.

Forex24(1).thumb.png.2d028693b3276a2cc9d5399370c20f42.png

Author

Peter Mathers

Peter Mathers

TradingLounge

Peter Mathers started actively trading in 1982. He began his career at Hoei and Shoin, a Japanese futures trading company.

More from Peter Mathers
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD remains above 1.1700 as bullish momentum builds

EUR/USD breaks its four-day losing streak, trading around 1.1720 during the Asian hours on Monday. On the daily chart, technical analysis indicates a prevailing bullish bias, as the pair remains slightly above the ascending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index at 61.63 remains in bullish territory, confirming firm momentum. RSI above 60 reinforces upward pressure and could sustain tests of nearby ceilings.

GBP/USD gains ground near 1.3400 ahead of UK Q3 GDP data

GBP/USD gains ground after three days of losses, trading around 1.3390 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the Pound Sterling holds ground ahead of the release of the United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter.

Gold hits fresh record highs above $4,400 amid renewed geopolitical woes

Gold is hitting fresh record highs above $4,400 early Monday, helped by renewed geopolitical tensions. Israel-Iran conflict and US-Venezuela headlines drive investors toward the traditional store of value, Gold. 

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple eye breakout for fresh recovery

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are approaching key technical levels at the time of writing on Monday as the broader crypto market stabilizes. Market participants are closely watching whether BTC, ETH, and XRP can sustain breakouts and achieve decisive daily closes above nearby resistance levels, which could signal the start of a short-term recovery.

De-dollarisation by design: Gold’s partner in the new system

You don’t need another 2008 for the system to reset. You just need enough nations to stop settling trade in dollars. And that’s already happening. "If gold is the anchor, what actually moves value in a post-dollar world?” It’s a question most gold investors overlook. We think in terms of storage and preservation, but in the new rails being built, settlement speed matters just as much as soundness of money.

XRP rebounds amid ETF inflows and declining retail demand demand

XRP rebounds as bulls target a short-term breakout above $2.00 on Friday. XRP ETFs record the highest inflow since December 8, signaling growing institutional appetite.