USD/JPY: Crawling higher in wave ((c)) of 2 – Zigzag completion in sight?

The current USD/JPY structure continues to unfold in line with a classic zigzag (5-3-5) correction, with the pair now advancing in what appears to be wave ((c)) of wave 2 on the 1-hour chart. After completing wave ((a)) into the 147.00 region and retracing into wave ((b)) near 142.50, price action has been grinding higher in a choppy but impulsive sequence.

This wave ((c)) leg is unfolding within a rising parallel channel, suggesting that the market is in the late stages of a corrective advance. So far, momentum remains constructive, but the structure lacks the verticality typical of a third-wave move, supporting the case for this being part of a corrective rally, not a new impulsive cycle.

The overall price action fits a wave 2 retracement following the sharp drop in wave 1 from the May highs. If this count is correct, we may soon complete the full zigzag correction, setting the stage for a resumption of the dominant downtrend in wave 3.

Key structure summary

• Wave ((a)): Sharp rally into late May highs near 147.00.

• Wave ((b)): Classic three-wave decline to ~142.50 support.

• Wave ((c)): Currently in progress, crawling higher in a grinding fashion — likely aiming for equality or 1.618 extension of wave ((a)).

What to watch

• Confluence near 147.00 – 147.50 (upper channel + wave equality) could act as exhaustion zone.

• A clean five-wave subdivision within ((c)) would help confirm the structure's maturity.

• Rejection from the upper bound and impulsive downside move would strengthen the case for wave 3 initiation.

The Elliotticians’ take

This is a corrective rally, not a trend reversal. If wave ((c)) completes soon, the next major move could be a high-velocity wave 3 to the downside. Until then, short-term bulls may still enjoy upside within the structure — but the clock is ticking.