USD/CAD Forecast: Canadian dollar steady, U.S durables next

Kenny Fisher MarketPulse

The Canadian dollar has started the week with slight gains. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.3365, up 0.14% on the day. On the release front, Canada releases manufacturing PMI, which has slowed for three straight months. Will we see a rebound in the March release? In the U.S., retail sales are expected to tick up to 0.3%. On Tuesday, the U.S. posts durable goods orders.

The Canadian dollar ended the week with strong gains, as Canada’s GDP posted a gain of 0.3% in January. This beat the estimate and came after two successive declines, which has raised concerns about the health of the Canadian economy. The slowdown in the fourth quarter has forced the BoC to turn more dovish and shelve any plans of hiking interest rates. There has even been calls for a rate cut from the bank, but the GDP gain in January will lessen the pressure on the BoC to stimulate the economy.

Investors are keeping a close eye on the ebb and flow of the U.S.-China trade talks, which continues to affect the movement of currency markets. The negotiations between the sides continues and there have been reports of progress. However, optimism waned on Thursday, after a senior U.S. official said that it could be months before a deal is reached. These remarks have raised risk aversion and boosted the dollar.

Markets enter rally mode after China bounces back

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Monday (April 1)

8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%
8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.3%
9:30 Canadian Manufacturing PMI
9:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.5
10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI
10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.4%
10:00 US Construction Spending. Estimate 0.1%
10:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices
14:55 Canadian BoC Governor Poloz Speaks

Tuesday (April 2)

8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.3%
8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate -1.1%

Open: 1.3445 High: 1.3365 Low: 1.3338 Close: 1.3365

USD/CAD Technical

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.3125	1.3200	1.3290	1.3383	1.3445	1.3552

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has posted small gains in European trade

1.3290 is providing support
1.3383 is a weak resistance line
Current range: 1.3290 to 1.3383

Further levels in both directions:

Below: 1.3290, 1.3200 and 1.3125
Above: 1.3383, 1.3445, 1.3552 and 1.3662

Author

Kenny Fisher

MarketPulse

A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities.

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