USD/CAD Elliott Wave: Triangle tussle to 1.3300
Executive summary
- Wave (d) completion: Minor wave (d) of wave ((iv)) triangle wrapping up around 1.361.
- Triangle’s end: We anticipate a small rally to finish (e) of ((iv)) to 1.3730–1.3775.
- Downside target: Next trend appears lower in wave ((v)) possibly reaching 1.33.
Current Elliott Wave analysis
Back on June 19, 3 days after wave ((iii)) finished, we forecasted a rally to 1.38 in wave ((iv)).
The rally stalled at 1.3797 on June 23 as the pattern then turned sideways. USDCAD appears to be carving a symmetrical triangle pattern and the 4th leg, wave (d), appears complete. This implies a small bounce in wave (e) to finalize the triangle.
Once this Elliott wave ((iv)) pattern is completed, then wave ((v)) should commence leading to lower price levels.
If USDCAD does not rally and continues to work lower now, then we’ll consider wave ((iv)) topped on July 17 and wave ((v)) is already in progress towards 1.33.
Bottom line
USD/CAD is finishing wave (d) of a corrective triangle of larger degree wave ((iv)). Look for a final wave (e) up into 1.3730-1.3775, then a bearish resumption targeting 1.33.
Author
Zorrays Junaid
Alchemy Markets
Zorrays Junaid has extensive combined experience in the financial markets as a portfolio manager and trading coach. More recently, he is an Analyst with Alchemy Markets, and has contributed to DailyFX and Elliott Wave Forecast in the past.
