Market movers today
-
Yesterday we published a presentation on the Swedish housing market: What if Swedish house prices dropped 15-20%? While SEK has adjusted we believe Swedish rates have yet to adjust to the weaker housing market in Sweden.
-
In the euro area the PMI figures for November are due for release. Manufacturing PMI rose steadily throughout 2017 and reached 58.5 in October from 58.1 in September. It is now st rikingly close to the 59.0 post -crisis peak reached in February 2011. While survey expectat ions indicators point towards further increases with rising consumer confidence and high Ifo and ZEW expectat ions, we expect only a moderate increase as the euro appreciation in 2017 could have started to act as a drag on export orders. Thus, we expect manufacturing PMI to increase to 58.7 and service PMI to increase to 55.2.
-
The ECB minutes from the October meet ing are also due for release today. At the October meet ing, the ECB extended its QE programme for another nine months in 2018 but scaled down the monthly purchases to EUR30bn (see also ECB Review: ECB opts for ‘lower-forlonger’ QE extension, 26 October). In the minutes, focus will be on the Governing Council's discussions regarding whether to put a definite end date to the QE programme, which might give insights regarding the likelihood of a possible tapering start ing in Q4 18.
-
In addit ion, German revised Q3 GDP are due for release today.
-
In Norway the Q4 oil investment survey could t urn out t o be t he week's most important release.
Selected market news
US bond markets rallied strongly last night following dovish minutes from the latest FOMC meet ing. The USD also weakened pushing EUR/USD above 1.18 again. The minutes revealed that the Fed is on t rack to deliver the third hike this year at its meeting next month. However, the minutes were a bi t dovi sh in th e sense th at "several" FOMC participants are becoming increasingly concerned about inflation running below 2% target, which, in our view, is a dovish signal that the Fed might not hike as much as they indicate themselves (3 hikes). We st ick to our view that the Fed is going to deliver two hikes next year although uncertainty is high given that we get a completely new FOMC next year with new Chair and new members. The FOMC members cont ribute the lower-than-expected inflat ion to a flat ter Phillips curve, more slack left in the labour market and possibly also lower inflat ion expectations (we have argued for the lat ter for a while).
In China the crackdown on shadow banking and renewed deleveraging push continues to hi t the bond market. Corporate bond yields (AAA) yesterday rose to the highest level in three years and is now up more than 200bp since late 2016. The fight on financial risks is posit ive in the long run but poses short term downside risk to Chinese growth.
Euro consumer confidence (released yesterday afternoon) rose to the highest level since 2000 point ing to cont inued strong private consumption growth.
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD comfortable below 1.0800 lower lows at sight
The EUR/USD pair lost ground on Thursday and settled near a fresh March low of 1.0774. Strong US data and hawkish Fed speakers comments lead the way ahead of the release of the US PCE Price Index on Friday.
GBP/USD extends sideways grind above 1.2600
GBP/USD fluctuates in a narrow channel above 1.2600 on Thursday. The better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims data from the US and the upward revision to the Q4 GDP growth help the USD stay resilient against its rivals and limits the pair's upside.
Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays near 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to gather further bullish momentum.
XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC
XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Torres was completely rejected by another US Court that ruled in favor of the SEC in a lawsuit against Coinbase.
Portfolio rebalancing and reflation trades emerge into Q2
Yesterday’s price action pointed at a possible end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing as the session saw the laggards of the quarter like Apple and Tesla gain, and the stars like Microsoft and Nvidia retreat.