US30, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, and Gold weekly forex forecast
As global financial markets transition into the final trading stretch of July, investors are grappling with rising geopolitical tensions, shifting central bank stances, and the looming shadow of sweeping US tariffs. This week’s trading landscape offers both opportunity and risk, as macro catalysts threaten to destabilize fragile risk sentiment and drive decisive moves across major FX pairs, commodities, and indices. This is what we are watching in the mentorship group this week.
Tariff risk dominates the narrative
President Trump’s aggressive trade agenda—most notably the proposed 30% blanket tariff on EU imports and upcoming levies on Chinese, Southeast Asian, and pharmaceutical goods—has pushed global investors to reassess both inflation expectations and growth trajectories. This is creating a split in risk sentiment: equity bulls remain hopeful for a soft-landing narrative, while fixed-income and FX traders are hedging for tail risks.
Central bank positioning
- Federal Reserve: Dovish hold expected in July, but pressure from the Trump administration is undermining policy credibility. Markets have priced out a July cut but still see a 60% chance of a September move.
- ECB: Will likely maintain rates at 2.15% this week but could acknowledge the growing probability of further easing by September due to eurozone fragility.
- BOJ: Hawkish bias intact, but Japan’s political instability following recent elections may delay any tightening until Q4.
- MAS (Singapore) and RBA: Both are tilting dovish amid trade exposure and weak inflation reads.
XAU/USD – Gold eyes breakout amid political risk and dollar volatility
Fundamentals
Gold continues to benefit from its dual role as an inflation hedge and geopolitical risk barometer. Real rates remain elevated, but political risks (Fed interference, Iran-Israel tensions, EU-US trade breakdown) are supporting safe-haven demand.
Sentiment
Bullish. Options flows remain tilted toward upside protection. CME gold futures open interest is expanding with net longs increasing.
Key levels
- Support: $3,310 – $3,325
- Resistance: $3,360 – $3,370
Implications for traders
Look to buy dips near $3,310. Upside targets lie at $3,360, particularly if Powell’s independence is called into question or inflation expectations spike.
US30 – Dow Jones faces tariff reality and earnings fragility
Fundamentals
Valuations are rich, with the S&P trading near 22x forward earnings. Trump’s tariff agenda is likely to compress margins for industrial and manufacturing giants—key Dow components. Q2 earnings from GM, FedEx, and Capital One this week could reinforce this pressure.
Key levels
- Resistance: 44,600
- Support: 44,100 – 44,300
Implications for traders
Favor short setups near 44,400 – 44,600. A break below 44,300 opens downside toward 44,100 – 44,000.
GBP/USD – UK caught between dovish BOE and US tariff uncertainty
Fundamentals
UK labor markets are weakening, inflation is sticky, and the BOE is under increasing pressure to cut rates by Q3. At the same time, UK exports could face knock-on effects from Trump’s European tariffs.
Sentiment
Mildly bearish. GBP underperforms G10 peers on rate cut expectations. Options market implies greater downside volatility.
Key levels
- Resistance: 1.345
- Support: 1.337
Implications for traders
Sell rallies into 1.337 with downside targets of 1.32 – 1.33.
EUR/USD – Trade war fears hit eurozone fragility
Fundamentals
The euro area is under threat from looming US tariffs and sluggish economic data. The ECB is set to hold this week, but with inflation near target and PMIs weakening, dovish rhetoric will likely grow louder.
Sentiment
Bearish. EUR/USD is under pressure from rate divergence and tariffs from the US.
Key levels
- Resistance: 1.165
- Support: 1.156
Implications for traders
Short any rallies toward 1.156. Upside above 1.165 to 1.18.
GBP/JPY – Range holds as yen gets political lift, pound weakens
Fundamentals
BOJ’s rate hike outlook is in flux due to political instability, while UK data remains soft. Yield spreads still support GBP/JPY, but risk-off flows may cap upside.
Sentiment
Neutral to bearish. Markets are tactically short yen but not aggressively positioned.
Key levels
- Support: 198.4
- Resistance: 200
Implications for traders
Sell toward 198.4 with tight risk. Upside to 200. Use BOJ headlines or UK CPI surprise as entry triggers.
USD/JPY – Political risk shakes BOJ timing, USD bid returns
Fundamentals
The BOJ is likely to pause amid political upheaval post-elections, while the Fed remains pressured by Trump, increasing dollar volatility. USD/JPY has room to run once risk appetite returns.
Sentiment
Bullish medium-term. Funds reloading long positions as yen strength looks temporary.
Key levels
- Support: 147.00
- Resistance: 150.50 – 152.00
Implications for traders
Buy dips near 147.00–147.50. Targets: 150.50, then 152.00. Stop below 146.20.
Final thoughts
This week is about managing exposure into Aug. 1's tariff deadline and staying agile in the face of political risk and central bank shifts. Market sentiment is fragile beneath the surface, and the FX and commodities space is primed for breakouts as macro narratives converge.
Author
Vrajeshwari Bhardwaj
SharmaFX
Vrajeshwari started SharmaFX in 2020. She holds a BA in Economics with a minor in Finance from San Jose State University. She is also pursuing an MS in Analytics with a concentration in International Economics and Markets from American University.
