US election monitor: Biden’s lead seems more stable than Clinton’s ever was

Danske Research Team Danske Bank A/S

In this first edition of the 2020 US Election Monitor (which we plan to publish each Friday morning until Election Day on 3 November), we highlight the differences between and similarities of the 2016 and 2020 elections. Most important is the stability and the size of Joe Biden's lead in the national votes compared with the 2016 election. Chart 2 shows that the 2016 national polls (dashed lines) were much closer and Hillary Clinton's lead less robust, while Biden's support is stable around 50%.

According to the current projections for electoral votes based on state polls, Joe Biden has 222 solid or likely electoral votes (226 for Clinton on Election Day 2016) and Donald Trump has 125 solid or likely electoral votes (180 for Trump on Election Day 2016). Thus, Biden has already ‘secured' as many electoral votes by 16 August as Clinton had on Election Day, while Trump is 55 electoral votes behind.

Looking at the swing states, Biden is notably ahead in Florida and Ohio, states that have historically voted for the winning candidate. Biden is leading by at least 5.5pp in swing states that voted Clinton in 2016. However, except for Missouri (R) and Wisconsin (D), the 2016 Trump swing states are all very close (within 5.0pp), with Biden in the lead in six of the nine close states.

Currently, the Senate election looks very close, with prediction markets leaning slightly towards a Democratic victory (53%). Democrats need to win 16 of 35 seats to get a majority, while Republicans need 21. According to RealClearPolitics, there are six ‘toss-up' seats in the Senate. Remember the Senate is particularly important for two reasons: (1) the President needs to control both the House and the Senate to get his policies though Congress and (2) redistricting in 2021. In our view, the House is likely to go to the Democrats.

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Author

Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S

Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.

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