US Dollar/Japanese Yen tests 1 (100%) Arc – Awaiting directional confirmation

Mohamad Gharib Independent Analyst

US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): Arc cycle analysis

Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 4h chart, U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen is interacting with the 1 (100%) Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Price remains centered around this Arc, indicating that directional confirmation has not yet been established.

Market outlook

Price remains centered around the 1 (100%) Arc, indicating that the market has not yet established a definitive directional bias within the current Arc Cycle. The preferred approach is to await confirmation before anticipating the next significant move.

A sustained 4h close above the Arc would favor a rebound toward 0.786 Arc, while a sustained close below the Arc boundary would shift the outlook toward continued downside extension into the outer Arc Cycle.

Author

Mohamad Gharib

Independent Analyst

Mohamad Gharib is a Financial Markets Analyst and Quantitative Researcher with more than 18 years of experience in financial markets, including 15 years as an FX Quant Trader.

AUD/USD keeps range near mid-0.7100s as USD bulls await US CPI

AUD/USD steadies near mid-0.7100s in the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's sharp decline to an over one-week low. The August PPI report reaffirmed Fed rate-hike bets and boosted the US Dollar on Thursday, which weighed heavily on the pair. However, hawkish RBA expectations limited losses for the Aussie as USD bulls now await the release of the US consumer inflation figures before placing fresh bets.

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00; looks to US CPI

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00 in the Asian session on Friday after hot Japanese PPI data bolster a more hawkish BoJ repricing and provide fresh impetus to the Japanese Yen. However, the downside appears capped as the US Dollar preserves overnight gains ahead of the latest US consumer inflation data.

Gold moves away from one-week low, climbs above $4,450 as USD edges lower ahead of CPI

Gold builds on its modest intraday recovery from the $4,300 neighborhood, or a one-and-a-half-week low, touched earlier this Friday, and climbs above $4,350 heading into the European session. The upside potential, however, seems limited as traders opt to wait for the release of US consumer inflation figures before placing directional bets.

Cardano approaches critical support as correction risks grow

Cardano (ADA) recovers slightly, trading at $0.206 at the time of writing on Friday, inches above the critical support zone after losing more than 6% so far this week. Weakening derivatives data and fading bullish momentum suggest a bearish near-term outlook, with a decisive close below the support zone potentially triggering a deeper correction for ADA.

Oil and rates surging ahead of US CPI today

In commodities, brent jumped to USD 108/bbl last night and held that level overnight. This is adding renewed inflation pressure and feeding through into global rates markets. Markets are starting to realise that the Strait of Hormuz disruptions are not going away anytime soon, especially from recent comments that signal no clear resolution in sight.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.