US CPI YoY: US consumer prices edged up in July amid rising data quality concerns

Purpose

Change in price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Key highlights

• The US CPI expected to rise further in July due to the impact of tariff driven price hikes.
• Core CPI MoM is estimated to rise to 0.3% in July while CPI YoY is anticipated to print 2.80%.
• June’s CPI hit 2.7%, it’s highest in four months, driven by tariffs and rising prices. July is expected to similar increase — around 0.2% for the month and 2.8% annually — as tariffs boost costs while falling gas prices and weak demand limit service price growth.
• July’s CPI will reveal ongoing tariff-driven inflation quietly eroding consumers’ buying power — a slow decline, not a crash.
• Rising CPI distances further from the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target.

US interest rate probabilities

• CME Fed watch is pointing at 84.5% and 52.4% probability of a rate cut in September and October, respectively.

US 10Y yields technical view

• US 10Y yields formed a double top formation between April 2024 and January 2025 by failing to break 4.74% and 4.81%.
• 10Y yields are facing a robust obstacle around 4.35 – 4.40%.
• Below this resistance a dip to 4.2 -4.10% is likely.

Technical analysis perspective

US CPI YoY

• US Core CPI Year-over-Year stayed below 2.2% from November 2012 to January 2017.
• Inflation rose to 2.7% by March 2017, then dropped to 1.6% in July 2017.
• Technically, past strong resistance, once broken upward, often becomes a solid support level in the future.
• YoY CPI has remained above 2.3% since October 2024.
• Inflation rebounded twice, from 2.4% in October 2024 to 2.3% in May 2025, forming a double bottom-like pattern.
• This formation suggests inflation could rise from 2.8% to 2.9% in the coming months.
• A similar pattern occurred between January and August 2018 (see rectangle A), which can be compared to the October 2024 - May 2025 pattern (rectangle B).

US Core CPI MoM:

Core CPI rises to 0.3% if it remains above 0.1% for a couple of months since April 2011 except on a few occasions where it cooled down.