US – China trade talks resumed? – Markets on the verge of a break lower

Important News for the day

• Fri, 30th, DE German prelim CPI.

• Fri, 30th, 14:30 CET US core PCE price index.

Trade uncertainty

With the parting of Elon Musk as an advisor to the US government some uncertainty might be added. The court appeal in terms of global- trade might add surprise moves to markets, which could increase over the weekend. According to Scott Bessent trade talks with China have stalled and next moves would need to come from China, says the former hedge- fund manager, now secretary of treasury. Only little progress has been made after the talks in Geneva two weeks ago. More talks are needed and a phone call between Trump and Xinping might help to “weigh in with each other”. China had not made any comment on this matter today. Also Chinese stocks had corrected slightly after the news.

Market talk

Stock markets shows signs of potential profit taking. Not only because it is the last trading day of the month today but also because of the tariff- war between the US and China. With the appeal of the US government, reciprocal tariffs will continue to be implemented. The uncertainty might currently cause further negative momentum in equities. Most indices have printed a negative candlestick pattern yesterday and the moves might hence turn negative momentum today. Furthermore the AUDUSD currency pair keeps pushing lower, which might indicate some negative sentiment in the first days in June. Also oil prices keep moving lower but potential further output output might have been priced- in already. Caution should hence be applied while trading the markets today.

Tendencies in the markets

• Equities correcting, USD weak, Bitcoin sideways, ETH positive, oil sideways, Silver positive, Gold positive, JPY weak.