UK GDP springs back but businesses brace for a tougher 2026

Matthew Ryan, CFA Ebury

While this growth uptick is a welcomed surprise, many UK businesses are facing the new year with trepidation after a turbulent 2025 plagued by tariffs, tax hikes and domestic economic uncertainty.

Geopolitical risks are slowing trade cycles and driving up costs under the restrictive US tariff regime. Exporters and importers alike are being squeezed, facing tough choices between absorbing the hit or passing it on to customers."

In this uncertain environment, we would urge firms to explore every option, including reviewing FX hedges and securing flexible finance, to help build resilience to any incoming headwinds.

Author

Matthew Ryan, CFA

Ebury

Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.

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