USDTRY Outlook: Turkish lira advances further on weaker dollar/hopes of improving relation with the US

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

The USDTRY pair fell further on Monday and probes below one of key supports at 5.8097 (base of thick daily cloud).
Turkish lira was boosted after court released US pastor, who was imprisoned for two years, in case that worsened relations between the US and Turkey.
Hopes that the relations between two countries will start to improve, boosted lira, with additional support from weaker dollar that was additionally hit by weaker than expected US retail sales.
Bearish daily techs add to positive outlook for lira, as multiple bear-cross has formed (10/55 & 20/55 SMA) and momentum studies are in firm bearish mode.
Eventual close below daily cloud would confirm bearish stance and expose next key support at 5.6875 (16 Aug low, posted after strong pullback from new all-time high at 7.1074.
Corrective upticks towards falling 10 SMA (6.0190) could be expected on oversold conditions and would provide better selling opportunities.

Res: 5.9040; 5.9892; 6.0190; 6.0661
Sup: 5.7499; 5.6875; 5.5336; 5.5035

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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