TRY rallies after upbeat data; focus on Fed; CBRT later this week

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

USDTRY

Turkish lira extends advance against US dollar for the second day. Upbeat economic data from Turkey, released today, offered fresh support to lira which resumes recovery from all-time low, posted on 22 Nov. Turkish Q3 GDP surprised in Q3 at 11.1%, beating forecast at 10%, while current account gap narrowed to $3.82 billion in Oct from $4.52 billion in Sep and beating forecast for $4.10 billion Oct trading deficit. Lira is currently moving in improved environment, as bulls are losing traction on daily chart. Daily Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen formed bearish cross, with additional bearish signal being generated on Friday's close below cracked Fibo support at 3.8453 (Fibo 38.2% of 3.6251/3.9814). Bears eye supports at 3.8032 (Fibo 50%) and more significant top of rising and thickening daily cloud at 3.7755. Daily cloud tracked the ascend since early Oct and is expected to ideally contain corrective pullback and mark base for fresh attempts higher. The pair is focusing two key events this week, FOMC policy meeting on 13 Dec and CBRT rate decision, due on 14 Dec, which are expected to give more clues about pair's near-term direction. While Fed is widely expected to go for a quarter percent hike, Turkish central bank is expected to stay unchanged despite strong inflationary pressure.

Res: 3.8377; 3.8700; 3.8831; 3.9447
Sup: 3.8196; 3.8032; 3.7764; 3.7612

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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