Trump touts unconfirmed Russia/Ukraine ‘energy ceasefire’

Asia market update: Equities trade mixed; Trump touts unconfirmed Russia/Ukraine ‘energy ceasefire’; Oil FUTs reversed opening gains; Quiet session for bonds amid JP market and US Federal holidays; RBA minutes due on Tues.

General trends and developments

- Mixed equity trading seen amid the Japanese holiday. Kospi lags after Friday’s holiday. Nasdaq FUTs see slight gains.

- Potential AI-related M&A in focus: Nvidia said to be in talks to acquire Reflection AI which is a developer of open-weight models. There are hopes within the US that these open-weight models could challenge Chinese models [FT]. Amazon said to be in talks to acquire Decart at valuation of ~$7.0B. The San Francisco-based AI startup co. makes it easier for developers to switch between different AI chips. [WSJ].

- Alibaba [BABA]: A local media report said to have noted Alibaba has started internal testing of an AI agent assistant that seeks to match Meta Muse - US financial press

- Foxconn Industrial Internet drops on US ITC news. Specifically, the US ITC launched a Section 337 probe into certain vertical power delivery systems. The investigation is based on a complaint filed on behalf of Vicor Corporation of Andover, Massachusetts, on September 9, 2026.

- Chinese automakers rise: China and the EU reached an understanding on hybrid car trade and agreed to properly manage trade disputes [Oct 9th].

- USD trades with a weaker bias versus the Asian currencies: CNH was again supported by the stronger Yuan fixing. Over the weekend, India launched measures to support the Rupee currency. The Korean Won (KRW) has rallied to the strongest level versus the USD since late 2024.

- Looking ahead this week (Asian-weighted focus, EST/EDT), key data releases include the AU September 28-29th RBA Meeting Minutes on Monday October 12th, CN September CPI & PPI on Tuesday October 13th, US September CPI & Core CPI [Oct 14th] followed by the CN September Trade Balance and AU September Unemployment Rate & Employment Changes & Participation Rate on Wednesday October 14th, and the EU September CPI on Friday October 16th. Additionally, the Asia markets will observe holidays in Japan on Monday, and Thailand on Tuesday/Friday.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using EST/EDT time-zone)

-Mon Oct 12th: IMF Semi-Annual Meetings, IN Sept CPI, RU Aug Trade Balance, (Mon night, JP Sept PPI, AU Sept 28-29th RBA Meeting Minutes, DE Sept CPI).

-Tue Oct 13th: US OPEC Monthly Report, US Sept Existing Home Sales, (Tue night, JP Sept M2 & M3 Money Supply, SG Q3 Preliminary GDP, CN Sept CPI & PPI, JP 5-Year JGB Auction).

-Wed Oct 14th: US IEA Monthly Report, US Sept CPI & Core CPI, CN Sept Trade Balance, (Wed night, KR Sept Trade Balance, AU Sept Unemployment Rate & Employment Change & Participation Rate, KR M2 & M3 Money Supply, JP Aug Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization, UK Aug GDP & Trade Balance).

-Thu Oct 15th: IN Sept Trade Balance, CN Sept New Yuan Loans & Total Social Financing & M2 Money Stock, EU Aug Industrial Production, US Sept Retail Sales & PPI, (Thu night, NZ Sept Manufacturing PMI, KR Sept Unemployment Rate, SG Sept Trade Balance, MY Q3 Preliminary GDP).

-Fri Oct 16th: EU Sept CPI, EU Aug Trade Balance, US Sept Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization Rate.

Holidays in Asia this week

-Mon Oct 12th: Japan.

-Tue Oct 13th: Thailand.

-Fri Oct 16th: Thailand.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens +0.3% at 8,740.

- Fitch affirms Australia's sovereign rating at AAA; outlook stable [from Oct 9th].

- New Zealand Ruling National Party to wait for budget surplus before tax cuts, launches fiscal plan with headroom of NZ$7.5B - Press.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng Index opens +0.9% at 24,434.

- Shanghai Composite Index opens -0.2% at 3,806.

- China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.7313 v 6.7330 prior.

-China moves to stave off wider EU trade war with hybrid deal - FT.

-China opposes US meeting with 14 nations on excess capacity - press.

- (US) Treasury Sec Bessent reportedly may skip APEC in Hong Kong to focus on Trump's Shenzhen visit - SCMP.

- China Finance Ministry said to vow to implement more proactive fiscal policy and roll out effective new policies; To step up countercyclical policy adjustments; Plans special sovereign bonds to recapitalize 8 companies; o guide local govt to speed up bond issuance.

-China Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) again adjusts price limits and margin ratios for fuel oil and petroleum asphalt futures contracts - press.

-China mutual fund rule revamp seen supporting long-term capital - Chinese press.

-China expects fresh wave of capital for stocks in Q4 - China Securities Daily.

-China reportedly considers lowering threshold for launching equity fund from CNY 200M to CNY 50M - press (75% cut).

- China Agriculture Ministry: Expects lower corn consumption in 2026/27, now sees corn consumption at 306.9 mts v 311.7 mts prior forecast.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY50B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net drains CNY250B v drains CNY604B prior.

- Volkswagen [VOW3.DE]: Chief calls for France and Germany to co-operate on China car fightback - FT.

-Geely [175.HK]: Establishes Canadian operations ahead of 2027 vehicle launch in that market.

- China MOFCOM: Premier Li Qiang to attend the opening ceremony of the Canton Fair which is being held Oct 15th-Nov 4th.

- China Sept Retail Passenger Vehicle Sales +5.0% m/m, -28.0% y/y; NEV Sales -16.7% y/y - PCA.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 Index closed for holiday.

- BOJ Gov Ueda to attend G20 in Thailand between Oct 13-17th.

-Honda [7267.JP]: Reports Sept China car sales -53.1% y/y.

Korea

- Kospi Index opens -0.7% at 6,578 [closed for holiday on Fri].

-South Korea Oct 1-10th Exports Y/Y: +102.0%; Imports: +65.5%; Chip exports: +170.9%.

- Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov Shin: Affirms inflation seen remaining above target for 'some time'; chip strength supporting faster than expected growth.

- Former Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov Rhee said South Korea chip industry cycle may end ‘earlier’ due to developments related to Chinese tech – South Korea press.

- (KR) North Korea fires unidentified projectile; cites South Korea Joint Chief of Staff.

Other Asia

- (IN) On Saturday, India announced ‘tough’ curbs on US dollar demand under which the RBI will supply oil firms with dollars directly from reserves– financial press.

- Taiwan probes certain companies over military drone parts from China - Press.

-IMF Managing Dir Georgieva : We are already seeing first wave of impact from AI; investments are keeping global GDP growth around 3.0%; US, China and India are the most important AI producers.

North America

-(US) White House taskforce says will mandate AI firms to report any breaches; Breach notification process will not be optional - press [weekend update].

-(US) NHC: Hurricane Isaias makes landfall in Florida panhandle; Damaging winds and flash flooding threat spreads inland (11:00ET update) [weekend update].

-(US) Trump: Hurricane preparations are 'under control'; We are watching it very closely [weekend update].

-(US) Trump: Refiners and retailers need to start dropping their prices [weekend update].

- (US) US ITC launched Section 337 probe into certain vertical power delivery systems.

-Nvidia: Said to be in talks to acquire Reflection AI which is a developer of open-weight models - FT.

-(US) ANTHROPIC.IPO Investigating unintended model actions in our evaluations and internal use [weekend update].

-(US) QCOM Jury in QCOM trial against ARM Holdings has not reached a verdict and will return to deliberations next week - press [weekend update].

-Synaptics [SYNA]: Reportedly Cirrus Logic made a bid for Syanptics after the On Semi deal - press.

-SpaceX [SPCX]: Musk said Terafab plant likely to make the 'best chips'; cites comments from Oct 10th - US financial press.

Europe

- *(US) President Trump: Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP [ **Note: The news has not been confirmed by Russia or Ukraine].

- Axios reported Russia has not accepted any kind of ceasefire.

-(UR) Reportedly Trump cut the diesel deal with Putin after Zelensky ignored repeated requests to stop targeting Russian oil refineries - Axios [weekend update].

-(US) Pres. Trump: Russia to supply 3M metric tons of diesel to USA within a short period of time depending on refinery conditions; Treasury suspends sanctions on Russian diesel [Oct 9th].

- (UR) US threatens to block arms for Ukraine over Russia refinery attack - FT.

-(CA) Canada PM Carney said oil exports to the US yield over 1M barrels of diesel daily- cites statement on Russia/Ukraine after talks with Trump.

- (UK) PM Burnham to host reception with business executives on Tues which will be attended by technology executives - FT.

- (UK) IFS says Chancellor Healey needs £35B to meet UK spending plans – financial press.

- (BE) Belgium PM canceled state union speech; lack of budget agreement cited – Press.

- (FR) Current poll suggests that Le Pen and Melenchon to reach the runoff round next April.

Middle East

-(US) FAA urges US airlines to exercise 'caution' when flying to or above Saudi Arabia; Saudi airport passenger terminal was struck again on Sunday, a day after 12 were killed on Saturday.

- (IR) Iran said the US response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was NOT sufficient; 3 tankers hit mines since Sat.

-(SA) Houthis attacked King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Saturday, killing at least 12 people and injuring over 300 more; Saudi coalition says will respond firmly to the attack [weekend update].

-(IR) US hit commercial tanker in Gulf of Oman on Oct 10th – FT.

- (IR) Iran and Saudi Foreign Ministers spoke on the phone; cites Saudi Ministry; Saudi Arabia also signed energy MOUs with Kuwait, Qatar and Egypt; The agreement between Qatar and Saudi Arabia to involve various aspects of the energy industry.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

Nikkei 225 closed; ASX 200 +0.7%; Hang Seng +0.2; Shanghai Composite -0.1; Kospi -2.3%.

Equity S&P500 Futures +0.4%; Nasdaq100 +0.5%; DAX +0.6%; FTSE100 +0.1%.

EUR 1.1218-1.1186; JPY 158.41-158.08; AUD 0.6996-0.6968; NZD 0.5619-0.5604.

Gold +0.1% at $4,219/oz; BTC +1.4% at $84,143 WTI Crude Oil -1.6% at $90.43/bbl; Copper +0.4% at $6.7393/lbs.