Trading GBP in the lead up to UK GDP data

Mark O’Donnell Blackbull Markets Limited

Great Britian’s GDP Growth Rate data for June 2022 is released in a few hours' time.

The British economy expanded 0.5% MoM in May, unexpectedly beating forecasts for a neutral month of growth. May’s reading stood in stark contrast in April’s –0.2%, March’s +0.1%, and February's 0.0% readings.

The market forecast for June has the data returning to negative territory, with expectations in the realm of –1.0%.

GBP in the lead up to GDP data

On the technical side, the GBP/USD pair is currently consolidating close to the key level at around 1.2223 on the 4-hour timeframe. The price is currently bouncing in between 1.2260 and 1.2181. From these levels, the GBP/USD might be preparing to make an impulse move upwards.

GBP/USD 4H, with Consolidation Zones Indicator

There is a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe of the pair which adds confirmation to this possible move. A Golden Cross is close to appearing with the 20-day moving average moving sharply upwards to almost intersect the 50-day moving average.

On the daily timeframe, an upside break will put it in contention to retest previous intra-day highs of 1.2400 and 1.2660.

GBP/USD 1D, with Consolidation Zones Indicator and 20-50-day moving average

On the other hand, the EUR/GBP pair seems to be making another run towards the upper resistance of the descending channel.

It has already visited this upper channel boundary 4 times since June 15, 2022. Perhaps it will visit 0.8503, in confluence with the 50-day moving average before continuing its way south. Although the Supertrend Indicator may suggest that the pair doesn’t have the sentiment to get close to the upper boundary.

EUR/GBP 1D, with 20-50-day moving average

Author

Mark O’Donnell

Blackbull Markets Limited

Mark O’Donnell is a Research Analyst with BlackBull Markets in Auckland, New Zealand.

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