|

Tracking the Trade War: US Car Sales to China Down, Parts From China Up

A pair of charts by Brad Setser highlight's Trump's difficulty in winning the trade war with China.

Trump says winning trade wars is easy.

Trade War Theory vs Practice

What's supposed to have been "easy" has turned out quite differently.

Record Monthly Deficit

Full Year Trade Imbalance Hits New Record

Please note the US trade deficit with China grows to a record.

  • China’s trade surplus with the U.S. — closely watched amid the tariff war between the two countries — grew 17 percent from a year ago to hit $351.76 billion in 2018. [Note this was originally posted as $323.23 billion]
  • Exports to the U.S. rose 11.3 percent year on year in 2018, while imports from the U.S. to China rose 0.7 percent over the same period.
  • The deficit that the U.S. has with China is likely even bigger than these figures indicate since China calculates the numbers using different methods, sometimes excluding goods that end up in the U.S. via other countries.

Despite a massive global slowdown in autos, auto parts imports keep rising. Note that US Auto Overcapacity is 10 Plants with 20,000 direct jobs on the line.

Amid talk of the greatest trade deal ever, President Trump will likely sign a deal with China by March. It won't solve much, if anything.

Author

Mike “Mish” Shedlock's

Mike “Mish” Shedlock's

Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc

More from Mike “Mish” Shedlock's
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD looks weak below 1.1800

EUR/USD has slipped back under pressure, breaking through the 1.1800 support and drifting towards the weekly lows near 1.1770 ahead of the opening bell in Asia. The move reflects renewed strength in the US Dollar, with steady geopolitical tensions keeping its demand firm. Moving forward, the release of the German labour market report and flash inflation figures should keep European investors entertained on Friday.
 

GBP/USD threatens the 200-day SMA near 1.3440

GBP/USD rapidly leaves behind Wednesday’s strong advance, coming under heavy pressure and retesting the 1.3440 zone, where the critical 200-day SMA is located. Cable’s deep pullback follows the strong gains in the Greenback, while investors continue to pencil in a potential BoE rate cut in March.

Gold trims gains, slips back to around $5,170

Gold is now facing some downside pressure, hovering around the $5,170 region on Thursday. The yellow metal surrenders part of its earlier gains on the back of the resurgence of the buying interest in the Greenback. In the meantime, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to limit the downside potential for now.

How AI, blockchain, stablecoins are shaping a new global economy – Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire

Artificial Intelligence (AI), blockchain technology and stablecoins are emerging as core pillars of a new global economic system, according to Circle’s CEO, Jeremy Allaire.

Changing the game: International implications of recent tariff developments

The Supreme Court ruling on International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs provides limited relief for the rest of the world, with weighted average tariff rates modestly lower.

Bitcoin steadies as traders eye US–Iran talks

Bitcoin (BTC) price is stabilizing around $68,000 at the time of writing on Thursday after a 6.2% relief rally the previous day amid a broader downward trend.