The US Government shutdown is pressing the Dollar but boosting stocks

Alexander Kuptsikevich FxPro

The US Government shutdown is pressing Dollar

The shutdown came as a bolt from the blue for the US dollar. The greenback was confident that Democrats and Republicans would reach a last-minute agreement. That did not happen. During previous government shutdowns, the dollar index typically fell on expectations of slowing GDP and mass layoffs. In 2025, the situation will worsen because the labour market is already cooling down.

Due to the shutdown, the publication of important data will be postponed. Therefore, the importance of the ADP report increases. Over the last two months, there has been a decline in private sector employment. This increased the chances of a federal funds rate cut in October to 99% and in December to 87%. Treasury bond yields and the US dollar fell.

There is increased demand for safe-haven assets in the markets. Gold continues to break records, Treasury yields are falling, and the yen has moved away from the political crisis in Japan and is growing steadily. In contrast, European currencies are not yet able to take full advantage of the weakness of the US dollar. The euro is hampered by geopolitics and events in France.

S&P 500 shrugged off the shutdown

The S&P 500 shrugged off the shutdown and marked its 29th record high since the beginning of the year. Pharmaceutical and technology companies, which received a tariff deferral, led the rally. The market was pleased by the news that OpenAI had become the largest startup in history, with a valuation of over 500 billion dollars.

Jerome Powell's comments about the high valuation of US stocks led only to a temporary pullback in the S&P 500. Investors immediately bought up the dip. History shows that since 1996, similar rhetoric from the Fed chairman has led to an average 13% increase in the broad stock index over the next 12 months. There is a view in the market that high Price-to-Earnings ratios are the new reality. Corporate reporting is improving, the US economy has shifted its focus from manufacturing to technology, and artificial intelligence makes the US stock market unique and attractive.

The ADP report on private sector employment did not deter the S&P 500. It finally convinced investors that the Fed would cut the federal funds rate twice more in 2025.

Author

Alexander Kuptsikevich

FxPro

Alexander Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, has been with the company since its foundation. From time to time, he gives commentaries on radio and television. He publishes in major economic and socio-political media.

AUD/USD gains traction near 0.7100 as the post-Fed USD rally pauses

AUD/USD finds fresh buyers and retakes 0.7100 in the Asian session on Thursday as the US Dollar pauses its hawkish Fed-inspired rally to its highest level since late July. However, RBA rate-hike bets and hopes for US-Iran diplomatic efforts lift risk sentiment and support the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar and the major.

USD/JPY reverses a dip below 156.00 as focus shifts to BoJ

USD/JPY is reversing a brief dip below 156.00 in the Asian session on Thursday, looking to snap a three-day winning streak to a nearly two-week top set the previous day. The US Dollar pauses following the post-Fed rally to seven-week highs, while a more hawkish repricing of the BoJ's policy normalization path supports the Japanese Yen. This keeps the pair's upside limited, with the focus now shifting to the BoJ policy decision due on Friday.

Gold retakes $4,300 amid modest USD pullback but hawkish Fed caps upside

Gold climbs back above the $4,300 mark heading into the European session on Thursday, though it remains within striking distance of a six-week low touched the previous day. The US Dollar eases after touching a fresh high since late July and offers some support to the commodity. However, the Fed's hawkish outlook, along with escalating Middle East tensions, should continue to underpin the safe-haven and cap the non-yielding bullion.

XRP and XLM rebound amid mixed signals

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) extend their recovery at the time of writing on Thursday after finding support at key technical levels. However, mixed derivatives and on-chain data for both altcoins suggest that traders remain cautious and have yet to show strong conviction in a sustained rebound. Derivatives data shows a mixed and cautious outlook among traders.

BoE expected to hold interest rate at 3.75%

The Bank of England (BoE) is set to reveal its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday, coinciding with its sixth rate-setting meeting of 2026. Market analysts expect the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.75%, which should be its sixth hold in a row following December’s 25-bps rate cut.

How Japan became the World's Banker and why that era may be ending

Japan's ultra-low interest rates helped finance trillions of dollars in global investments for more than a decade, making the Japanese Yen one of the world’s cheapest sources of funding. With the Bank of Japan expected to tighten policy again this week, that advantage may be entering a new phase. While most major economies raised interest rates, Japan remained the world's outlier.