The moment of truth

After the recent moves, the markets are approaching a critical decision point.

The U.S. dollar is testing a major resistance zone while precious metals are sitting near equally important support levels. Today's closing prices could provide the confirmation traders have been waiting for and potentially determine the direction of the next larger move.

U.S. Dollar Index (DX.F)

Let's start this section with yesterday’s quote:

“(…) The dollar remains trapped inside a relatively narrow range between the recently reclaimed March highs - which continue to act as support - and a major resistance zone built around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, the upper boundary of the black rising channel, and the bearish gap from late May 2025 (100.75-100.95).(…)”

From today's perspective, we see that bulls managed to defend the recently reclaimed March highs and that support gave the dollar enough fuel for another push toward the mentioned resistance zone.

At the time of writing these words, the greenback is trading above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and above the last year's bearish gap. However, one major obstacle remains: the upper boundary of the rising channel.

Why does that matter?

Because today's session could become a defining moment not only for the dollar, but for the entire metals complex.

If buyers manage to close the day above the upper boundary of the channel, the breakout would open the door toward (at least) the next resistance zone near 101.39-101.59, where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension meets the May 2025 highs.

Such a move would likely increase pressure on precious metals.

On the other hand, another failed breakout attempt - similar to Friday's rejection - could send the dollar back toward the March highs and give metals some breathing room.

In short: today's close may become one of the most important closes of the week. 

Platinum (PL.F)

Looking at the daily chart, one thing stands out immediately.

While platinum has not yet produced a daily close below the critical 1641 level, buyers were unable to defend the June low - a technical development that raises serious questions about their willingness to fight for higher prices.

The current low sits inside a very important support cluster built around two bullish gaps from late November, the lower boundary of the orange channel, and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

In other words, bulls still have support.

But support alone is not enough.

If buyers fail to reclaim 1665 by today's close (in other words, they do not manage to hold the bullish gap from June 12), a test of the 1600 area becomes increasingly likely (in line with Friday’s scenario) - especially if the dollar continues higher.

The first meaningful sign of improvement would be a close back above 1707 and confirmation of the earlier invalidation below the March low. 

Palladium (PA.F)

To frame today’s price action, let’s go back to yesterday’s quote: 

“(…) palladium remains below the previously broken lower boundary of the orange consolidation. Therefore, in our opinion, as long as price stays below 1305, another downswing toward the 1234 region cannot be ruled out.(…)”

Looking at the daily chart, we see that palladium followed yesterday's bearish roadmap almost perfectly. The downside target has been reached and price is now trading below the lower boundary of the June 12 bullish gap.

That is not what buyers wanted to see.

Why?

Because a sustained move below that gap would put the previously discussed double-bottom structure at risk.

At this point, bulls need to recover the gap quickly. Otherwise? The market may soon start focusing on another leg lower. 

Copper (HG.F)

Copper delivered exactly what yesterday's technical picture suggested. As a reminder:

“(…) As long as Thursday's gap remains open, Friday's bearish outlook remains valid:

“(…) with Thursday's bearish gap still hanging above the market, another retest of today's low and potentially the next support zone around 617-619 cannot be ruled out.

The failed attack on the lower boundary of Thursday's bearish gap triggered another wave of selling pressure and price successfully reached our downside target (congratulations again to everyone who took advantage of that move!).

The interesting part starts now.

Copper has reached an important support zone built around former highs from February and April as well as the May 20 low. That area slowed the decline in May and may once again provide buyers with a foundation for a rebound.

However, looking at the size and momentum of today's bearish candle, a rebound toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near 611 currently appears more likely than an immediate bullish reversal.

Today’s takeaway

Dollar (DX.F)

•             Watch the upper boundary of the rising channel

•             Daily close above -> opens the door toward 101.39-101.59

•             Rejection -> likely retest of March highs

•             Today's close is critical
Platinum (PL.F)

•             Watch 1665

•             Close below support keeps pressure on bulls

•             Next major support: 1600

•             Bullish improvement begins above 1707

Palladium (PA.F)

•             Trading below June 12 bullish gap (1249) increases risk of another downswing and test of recent lows

•             Invalidation of today’s breakdown under this support would weaken the bearish case

Copper (HG.F)

•             Support zone (612.85-615) currently under test

•             Next important support: 611

•             Invalidation of today’s breakdown under 627.50 would weaken the bearish case

Stay patient, respect the levels, and let confirmation lead the way.