The gov't is becoming the boy who cried wolf

Good Day... And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, all good things come to an end, and in this case the U.S. Men's Soccer Team's run in the World Cup... Europe always seems to have our number, when it comes to soccer, and so it was last night with Belgium... I had 2 TVs going last night one with the Cardinals and the other with the U.S soccer game... Both lost so I was no luck for them...  R.E.M. Greets me this morning with their song: The One I Love...

Well, the brief buying of the dollar yesterday morning petered out, and on the day the dollar lost 1 index point in the BBDXY, as it closed at 1,218...  You know, one of these days, the dollar bugs are going to sit down and read about all the problems in the U.S. and then, and only then, they will finally see that the writing is on the wall and that they need to be selling dollars... 

Gold/Silver never got the chance to turnaround their early morning losses as the SPTs kept the pressure on them all day... Gold ended the day at $4,165m down $11 on the day... And Silver ended the day at $62.18 down 34-cents on the day...  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $68 handle throughout yesterday and the 10-year fought the "yield control dastardly dudes" and the 10-year's yield ended the day at 4.48%... 

In the overnight markets last night... there was no movement in the dollar overnight, and the BBDXY starts today at 1,218... It's as if the dollar bugs have all gone on vacation or something... Who knows?

The price of Gold is flat this morning, after spending most of the night in the red, Gold has fought back to start the day in the same clothes as it wore at last night's close... Silver is down 59-cents to start the day, but if Gold takes off higher from here it will drag Silver along for the ride... 

The price of Oil bumped higher to trade with a $69 handle this morning, and the 10-year remained trading with a 4.48% yield... 

A long-time reader of the Pfennig, Bob, sent me an article that gave me the shudders... I've cut a piece of it out here for you... This is from Quartz.com and here's a piece: "Manufacturing's decline didn't arrive as a single event. It came in waves, separated by stretches of false recovery, and the communities hit hardest never fully came back. Now, as AI-driven displacement begins to reach white-collar knowledge workers, the manufacturing collapse is the closest historical template available.

U.S. manufacturing employment peaked at 19.6 million in June 1979, the Bureau of Labor Statistics found. By December 2009, that figure had fallen to 11.5 million. The drop wasn't gradual. It happened in five distinct collapses, each tied to a recession, and after every one, employment never climbed back to where it stood before.

The question is whether anyone will learn from previous events before AI has the same effect on white-collar workers.

Some researchers say generative AI could reshape half the workload for nearly a third of the workforce, particularly those in law and finance. Others claim about 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by large language models, with higher-income jobs facing the greatest exposure."

Chuck again... C'Mon AI can't be that darn good, that it can replace 10% of the work of 80% of the workers, can it? I sometimes wonder if AI ends up doing as much for the economy as the internet did... I'm just wondering... 

Well, the new el jefe of the Fed/ Cabal / Cartel, Kevin Warsh is saying the right things about wanting to slay inflation, but does he have the intestinal fortitude to do the job? I guess we'll all have to wait-n-see, but in the meantime back at the ranch, inflation continues to rise and real inflation is probably around 8-9%... So, to me it would be helpful for Warsh to come out and say what inflation really is without hedonic adjustments... Only then, will we be able to start to whittle it down, by shutting off Money Supply...

I saw a report calling for Gold to reach a price of $4,600... Now, that was the first forecast that seemed reachable to me... I'm just saying... 

The Chinese renminbi has backed off its assault on the dollar, for now... I mentioned yesterday how the Brazilian real had hung tough VS the dollar, and for once I didn't give real the kiss of death when I talked about it glowingly! I just wanted to say that the Brazilian President is a bag of bad things, but that hasn't hurt the real just yet...

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the Trade Balance for us... And tomorrow, we'll see the FOMC's meeting minutes... They ought to be interesting as there was lots of discussion about rate hikes at the last meeting... So, hold your horses, we'll only have to wait until tomorrow... 

To recap... The dollar's brief rally yesterday morning petered out and the dollar ended up losing 1 index point... Gold & Silver couldn't find a bid and lost ground on the day... And Warsh wants slay inflation, he's going to have to prove he's the knight in white shining armor to do the job...

For What It's Worth... Well, it had to come about sometime, the sooner the better as far as I'm concerned. What I'm talking about is how Wall Street if finally getting the picture that the Gov'ts economic reporting is bullocks! 

Here's your snippet: "Jamie Cox, a managing partner at Harris Financial Group in Richmond, Virginia (with $1.3 billion in assets under management), had a visceral reaction to the June jobs number from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: "These data are misleading and should be disregarded," he said in an email to Fortune. "There is zero chance leisure and hospitality posts a negative print in the midst of the World Cup. Revisions higher in the next few months are coming."

He's not alone.

Increasingly, analysts and economists at major banks and financial institutions are saying they don't believe the numbers. Partly, this is a routine function of the way in which the U.S. government collects economic stats. It takes time to gather all the survey data needed to describe hiring (nonfarm payrolls, in the official lingo), and the BLS publishes a series of revisions to its numbers as the months go by.

So not believing the initial figure is par for the course. The numbers will always be revised later as straggling data sets and survey responses trickle in."

Chuck again... As soon as Wall Street starts to ignore the Gov't's economic reports, the Gov't will have to change their stance that good reports fool the people into thinking that the economy is just rosy... 

Market Price 7/7/2026: American Style: A$ .6951, kiwi .5695, C$ .7034, euro 1.1440, sterling 1.3388, Swiss $1.2414, European Style: rand 16.2280, krone 9.8036, SEK 9.6523, forint 309.07, zloty 3.7516, koruna 21.1777, RUB 76.17, yen 161.76, sing 1.2908, HKD 7.8422, INR 94.96, China 6.7930, peso 17.41, BRL 5.1334, BBDXY 1,218, Dollar Index 100.89, Oil $69.04, 10-year 4.48%, Silver $61.59, Platinum $1,662.00, Palladium $1,304.00, Copper $6.29, and Gold... $4,165,

That's it for today... well, the doctor's suggestions worked for a few days, but then last night I woke up with stomach problems again...UGH! Oh, well, they only last about 10 minutes, but then it takes me a bit to get back to sleep... My beloved Cardinals couldn't hold their 3=0 lead and lost to the Brew Crew last night... Two TV's and two losses... Went to dinner last night with good friends, so it was good to do something different! Paul Simon takes us to the finish line this morning with his song: You Can Call Me Al... I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!