|

The Fed is between a rock and a hard place [Video]

It needs to cut interest rates because this debt-riddled economy simply can’t function in a high-rate environment. But the Fed can’t plausibly cut rates with price inflation still far above its target. 

As Mike Maharrey explains in this episode of Money Metals’ Midweek Memo, the Fed is damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t.

Mike opens the show with a Monty Python movie analogy to highlight the Fed’s dilemma. He then pivots into a breakdown of the January CPI report. He argues that it’s clear from the data that price inflation is far from defeated.

The markets were particularly displeased with this CPI print and threw quite a temper tantrum. Mike presents some of the highlights and offers his theory as to why the markets are responding this way. 

He notes that it is indeed a strange world when people sell an inflation hedge with evidence of elevated inflation. But it appears the markets are most concerned about getting interest rates down.

Mike talks about just one of the reasons why – the skyrocketing interest payments on the national debt.

Therein lies the rub. Everybody wants rate cuts. But inflation clearly isn’t dead. This is despite the fact monetary conditions aren’t historically tight. This is another aspect of the Fed’s dilemma. It needs to tighten more, but it knows it can’t because it will break the economy.

In fact, Mike argues that the Federal Reserve broke the economy a long time ago. He explains how and points out some of the symptoms that the mainstream isn’t paying attention to.

Mike summed it up this way:

No wonder everybody, including the central bankers over at the Fed, wants to cut rates. But price inflation is still there. And there they are, stuck between a rock and a hard place. It’s damned if you do, damned if you don’t. 

Do they pick more price inflation? Or do they pick an economic crash and financial crisis due to high rates? Or do we maybe get both?

Mike closes out the show with a call to action, pointing out that the selloff in gold and silver after the CPI report presents a potential buying opportunity for bargain hunters.


To receive free commentary and analysis on the gold and silver markets, click here to be added to the Money Metals news service.

Author

Mike Maharrey

Mike Maharrey

Money Metals Exchange

Mike Maharrey is a journalist and market analyst for MoneyMetals.com with over a decade of experience in precious metals. He holds a BS in accounting from the University of Kentucky and a BA in journalism from the University of South Florida.

More from Mike Maharrey
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD climbs to two-week highs beyond 1.1900

EUR/USD is keeping its foot on the gas at the start of the week, reclaiming the 1.1900 barrier and above on Monday. The US Dollar remains on the back foot, with traders reluctant to step in ahead of Wednesday’s key January jobs report, allowing the pair to extend its upward grind for now.

GBP/USD hits three-day peaks, targets 1.3700

GBP/USD is clocking decent gains at the start of the week, advancing to three-day highs near 1.3670 and building on Friday’s solid performance. The better tone in the British Pound comes on the back of the intense sekk-off in the Greenback and despite re-emerging signs of a fresh government crisis in the UK.

Gold treads water around $5,000

Gold is trading in an inconclusive fashion around the key $5,000 mark on Monday week. Support is coming from fresh signs of further buying from the PBoC, while expectations that the Fed could turn more dovish, alongside concerns over its independence, keep the demand for the precious metal running.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin steadies around $70,000, Ethereum and XRP remain under pressure 

Bitcoin hovers around $70,000, up near 15% from last week's low of $60,000 despite low retail demand. Ethereum delicately holds $2,000 support as weak technicals weigh amid declining futures Open Interest. XRP seeks support above $1.40 after facing rejection at $1.54 during the previous week's sharp rebound.

Japanese PM Takaichi nabs unprecedented victory – US data eyed this week

I do not think I would be exaggerating to say that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s snap general election gamble paid off over the weekend – and then some. This secured the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) an unprecedented mandate just three months into her tenure.

Ripple exposed to volatility amid low retail interest, modest fund inflows

Ripple (XRP) is extending its intraday decline to around $1.40 at the time of writing on Monday amid growing pressure from the retail market and risk-off sentiment that continues to keep investors on the sidelines.